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Notes from Alex Carrick

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It is hard to comprehend the immense scale of construction activity that is proceeding in Alberta’s Tar Sands. Most reports simply list the energy projects that are underway and planned and their dollar value. The latest figure, as quoted in most newspaper reports these days, seems to add up to about $100 billion.

Instead, let’s compare some key statistics between Alberta and Ontario, the province that usually leads Canada in economy-size measures.

The population of Ontario is 12.9 million versus Alberta’s population of 3.5 million, a ratio of almost four to one.

Housing starts in Ontario have averaged 74,000 units per year over the past 10 years versus Alberta’s 35,700 units, a ratio of slightly more than two to one.

Spending on residential construction in Ontario in 2007 was 36% of the national total. In Alberta, it was 16%.

Spending on non-residential building in Ontario in 2007 was 39% of the total-Canada figure, versus Alberta’s 18% level.

Remember that 2007 was a relatively good year for both residential and non-residential building construction in Alberta relative to Ontario. And still, Alberta fell well short.

Everything changes when we look at engineering work, which is where heavy oil/Tar Sands projects are categorized.

Engineering projects accounted for two-thirds of Alberta’s total construction spending in the latest year. As a result, Alberta’s share of Canada’s total engineering construction was 45%, much higher than Ontario’s 17%.

The bottom line: On account of mega energy projects, Alberta and Ontario were neck-and-neck in terms of total dollar-volume construction in 2007, at approximately $60 billion each and 28% of the national total each. Furthermore, those two provinces combined to account for more than half of all construction in the country.

Tomorrow, I’ll write about eight of the key issues facing Tar Sands development.

Alex Carrick


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