CanaData’s construction starts statistics remained down about 20% on a year-to-date basis in November 2008, versus the same period in 2007. Grand total starts (i.e., residential, plus ICI, plus engineering) for the country as a whole were -23% in square footage and -18% in dollar volume, due to a downturn in general economic activity.

Through November of this year, total Canada residential starts were -22% in square footage and -16% in dollars, versus the first eleven months of last year. Unit starts were down by 19% overall, with multiples (-23%) dropping more than singles and semis (-16%). CanaData’s figures on multiples are more pessimistic than government numbers, perhaps because of an earlier reporting of starts on a number of major condo projects.

According to CanaData, year-to-date total non-residential building (ICI) starts were negative to about the same degree after November as they were the month before. Through November of this year, they stood at -26% in square footage and -25% in dollars. The comparable figures after October 2008 were -26% and -28% respectively.

In institutional construction (about -20% in both square footage and dollars), hospital work (-12% in square footage) and educational projects (-13%) have held up fairly well. The big declines have come in medical/welfare buildings (-56%) and public assembly buildings (-47%). There is one institutional sub-category that has shown a solid gain, defence and law enforcement (+52%), thanks to a major remand centre in Edmonton.

Commercial starts are -30% in square footage and -27% in dollars year to date. Private office buildings (-36%) have particularly fallen behind, because 2007 was a strong year for starts in this category. “The Bow” office tower in Calgary and “Bay-Adelaide” in Toronto helped to inflate the 2007 starts total. Retail and wholesale services starts are off by about one-quarter and little work has been recorded in the shopping centre category.

The square footage for warehouse and storage buildings is -44%. The latter category depends to a significant degree on what is happening in retail activity. It also ties in with the production levels of manufacturers. Hotel and motel work (-16% in square footage) has recorded one of the smallest declines in the commercial category. “Parking buildings” (+88%) is the only commercial category with a significant up-tick to date.

Industrial starts are down by a relatively small percentage (-11%) in square footage. But industrial construction remains weak overall, due to the recession and the drop in business confidence that has recently shown up in the stock markets. Engineering starts (-12%) are down a bit this year, but that isn’t so bad, given that there was a huge hydroelectric power project start in Québec last year. The dollar volume of power plant work is down by half in 2008, but strength in this category will gather momentum in the years ahead as mega-sized electric power projects in the planning stage are initiated.

Some engineering sub-categories are doing okay. Provincial infrastructure spending to improve safety has caused bridge starts to nearly double this year versus last year. Sewer and watermain work is about even with the same time period in 2007. Road and highway starts are +7%. This category has also accounted for the largest dollar volume in the engineering category at $6.2 billion so far this year. Bridges are second at $2.9 billion.

As for the ten largest project starts in the individual month of November, six were in Ontario, two were in Alberta and there was one each in Québec and British Columbia. By type of structure, the engineering category, with four, accounted for the most. Residential, commercial and institutional work provided two each. The Top 10 starts list and the Trend Graph appear on Reed Construction Data’s Market Insights website page.

Notes: CanaData’s construction starts are made up of new, addition and alteration work. There are dollar and square-footage figures for new and addition work, but not for alterations.

The type of structure breakdowns are residential, non-residential building (also known as ICI to correspond with industrial, commercial and institutional) and engineering. These are all recorded in both dollars and square feet, except for engineering work (e.g., roads and highways, pipelines, electricity projects, etc.), where only dollars make sense.

CanaData, a statistics-gathering and forecasting product line of Reed Construction Data (RCD), calculates starts based on RCD’s extensive tracking of projects through all stages of construction.

Alex Carrick