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Notes from Alex Carrick

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Statistics Canada released Canada’s fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) results early this morning and a marked slowdown was evident. On a quarter-to-quarter annualized basis, total GDP growth was only +0.8%. This compared with +3.0% in the third quarter, +3.8% in the second and +4.0% in the first.

Consumer spending rose strongly in the latest period (+7.4% quarter-to-quarter annualized), as did investment in machinery and equipment (+14.3%). However, goods exports (-10.4%) weakened considerably, while imports of goods and services (+10.9%) had a second straight quarter of double-digit increase. Leaving out foreign trade and inventory adjustments, final domestic demand was strong at +6.9%.

With fourth quarter results now in, the year-over-year annual GDP growth number is available. Canada’s GDP growth for all of 2007 compared with 2006 was +2.7%. In 2006, it had been almost exactly the same at +2.8%. Consumers made a big contribution to the 2007 level of growth by increasing their spending at a year-over-year rate of +4.7%.

There is a more complete report on these latest numbers (with graphs) on RCD’s “Economy & Finance” channel within Market Insights. By the way, the Bank of Canada is scheduled to make an interest rate announcement tomorrow, March 4 2008.


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