How do you know that you are in a recession on a “gut-check” level rather than an academic level? The following concludes with a final five indicators after introductory coverage a day or two ago.

(6) Media coverage of layoffs by firms goes way up: It seems as if every news broadcast begins with the words, “XYZ Company (fictitious) announced today another round of worker layoffs at its plant on the edge of town. This brings to 500, the number of job losses by the firm so far this year. The company, which specializes in the production of widgets for the “fill-in-the-blank” industry, cites ongoing problems related to the slowdown/recession in the general economy.”

(7) Advertising cutbacks: This is another area where firms can quickly save money. It may be short-sighted, but that’s the effect that recessions have on decision-makers. Less corporate advertising becomes most readily apparent in thinner newspapers and smaller magazines. At the same time, the same old threadbare ads keep popping up on TV. We don’t have enough history yet to know what impact an advertising recession will have on the appearance of the Internet.

(8) Stock markets go into a deep freeze: Profit growth atrophies. Public pronouncements about earnings estimates keep being revised downward.

(9) There is a much higher level of “bankruptcy protection” announcements: This is to be expected.

(10) Some government spending frills disappear: Tax revenues start to wither and government spending on lawn care in parks and along roadsides becomes more ragged; or recreational programs at swimming pools and skating rinks get their hours cut. These effects are most apparent at the municipal level of government spending.

You can check off how many of these 10 symptoms you are starting to see. These are indicators that a recession is underway regardless of what the “official” statistics might say.

(Nevertheless, the official dates for a recession in the U.S. are set by the National Bureau of Economic Research.)

Alex Carrick

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