It seems to me that there is a footrace underway in Canada for second-place economic clout (behind Ontario) among the provinces between Alberta and Québec. Québec has more than double the population of Alberta (7.7 million versus 3.5 million), but it has languished for decades due mainly to political issues (i.e., the sovereignty debate and its impact on investment). In the meantime, Alberta has been undergoing a mega energy project boom for at least ten years.

Alberta is definitely gaining on Québec in terms of economic impact within Canada. Alberta’s contribution to national GDP at 14.3% is already ahead of British Columbia’s 12.3% share. Québec’s role is a little over 20% while Ontario’s is 41%.

There are other indicators to support this conclusion as well. The latest are housing starts. Over the past ten years, 1998 to 2007, housing starts in Alberta have averaged 35,700 units annually. This level is not that far below Québec’s annual average figure of 40,000 units. (By the way, Ontario is still well out front at 74,000 units and British Columbia is in fourth spot with 25,900 units.)

In the latest specific year, 2007, housing starts in both Alberta and Québec were almost exactly the same. Québec was only marginally higher at 48,600 units versus Alberta’s 48,300 units.

Alex Carrick

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