I’m considering cutting back CanaData’s forecasts of Canadian construction activity in 2009 by 5% to 10%. This would be due to all the bad economic news that we have been hearing of late. But the situation remains too volatile. Dramatic developments continue to assault us daily.

Adjusting one’s forecasts under such extreme uncertainty can be compared to standing up in a convertible while driving under a bridge. It’s risky and the results may be ugly.

I’d rather wait until some semblance of calm has been restored. CanaData’s forecasts on housing starts, square footage starts and put-in-place investment are already quite conservative.

I do know this, however. Most business managers are now preparing plans that factor in a recession lasting well into next year.

Alex Carrick

Find Canadian construction-related economic articles in Canadian Construction Market News and in the Economic Outlook section of Daily Commercial News.

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