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Notes from Alex Carrick

Insight and Analysis of Construction Industry Trends
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Regional Markets

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The U.S. economy has shed 600,000 jobs since the beginning of this year, after more than four years of nothing but month-to-month increases in employment. The year-over-year job change (August 2008 versus August 2007) now stands in negative territory (-0.2%) for the first time since late 2003.

Where are some of the largest job losses occurring? The following sets out nine prominent sectors where the year-over-year employment decline has been -4% or greater. The presence of most of these product areas in the list comes as no surprise. Residential construction, forestry and automotive are particularly well represented.

(1) Motor vehicles and parts (-12.9%).

(2) Residential building (-11.8%).

(3) Residential specialty trade contractors (-10.5%).

(4) Wood products (-10.0%).

(5) Furniture manufacturing and related products (-8.4%).

(6) Building material and garden supply stores (-6.1%).

(7) Nonmetallic mineral products (-5.0%).

(8) Heavy and civil engineering construction (-4.3%).

(9) Automobile dealers (-4.2%).

The listing of sectors where the year-over-year employment change has been +4.0% or greater is a good deal shorter, but still has impressive credentials. Resource sector strength particularly plays a role in the following.

(1) Oil and gas extraction (+11.8%).

(2) Coal mining (+7.7%).

(3) Computer systems design and related services (+4.0%). This is good to see as it will mean ongoing productivity advances.

(4) Educational services (+5.0%). By way of comparison, health care employment (+2.8%) is also up, but to a lesser extent.

One additional category warrants mention with respect to its implications for non-residential construction. Employment in architectural and engineering services remains quite healthy at +1.9% year over year.

Alex Carrick

Find Canadian construction-related economic articles in Canadian Construction Market News and in the Economic Outlook section of Daily Commercial News.

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