On a couple of counts, I can understand why the Conservatives and Mr. Harper have been dropping in the polls as Canada’s federal election approaches next week. There is a personal style that is having trouble connecting with the voters and the suspicion of a social agenda further to the right than many Canadians want to go. But on the issue of the economy, the Conservative’s record is pretty solid.

But it is with respect to the economy that the Conservatives have been “taking it on the chin”, especially during the leadership debates. The other party leaders have been ganging up to decry the poor state of Canada’s preparedness as the world slips further into difficult times.

True, Canada’s economic outlook has dimmed as a result of the global slowdown and falling commodity prices. But we are entering this period of reduced prospects in much better shape than most other nations, particularly our cross-border friends to the south. Look at the numbers.

Canada’s unemployment rate is near an all-time low and we are continuing to create new jobs year to date. By comparison, the United States has lost 1.5 million jobs since the beginning of 2008 and its unemployment rate is climbing.

Yes, Canada is losing manufacturing jobs, but at just about exactly the same pace as the U.S. Both countries are struggling to compete with low-cost industrial workers elsewhere. Protectionism and “beggar-thy-neighbour” policies are not the answer. These lower the standard of living of everybody.

Retail sales in Canada have been holding up nicely. Inflation-adjusted retail sales in the U.S. are now deeply negative year over year.

Car sales in Canada are still rolling along. In the U.S., they’ve slipped a couple of gears.

Housing starts in Canada remain strong. In the U.S., new house construction is off by 60% versus peak.

Home prices in Canada are finally moderating. In some centres in the United States − Las Vegas, Los Angeles and Miami − the price of homes has dropped by more than 20%.

Banks in the U.S. have been dropping like flies. The U.K., Europe and some other countries have also seen some financial sector failures. In Canada, the banking system has remained on firm foundations.

Finally, government finances in Canada are considerably better than they are across the border, where state funding shortfalls and a huge federal deficit, plus growing debt, are adding to concerns about the future.

Why aren’t the Conservatives blanketing the airwaves with this message? Maybe their chief strategists have been too distracted watching the stock markets. Harder times are coming, but voters have a more sophisticated understanding of the issues than they are often given credit for.

Anyway, it’s pretty late in the game to do much damage control. It has been said that timing is everything. On this most important of counts and with respect to his election call, Mr. Harper may have rolled “snake eyes”.

Alex Carrick

Find Canadian construction-related economic articles in Canadian Construction Market News and in the Economic Outlook section of Daily Commercial News.

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