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U.S. year-over-year employment growth remained solid at +1.2% year over year in October 2007, but there has been a gradual decline from the peak level of +2.0% in early 2006. Two sectors with negative year-over-year employment growth — manufacturing (-1.4%) and construction (also -1.4%) — are accounting for most of the slowdown. Two other sectors are showing real strength in job growth at this time — education and health (+3.2%) and leisure and hospitality (+3.3%).
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For October 2007, RSMeans’ U.S. 30-city average Construction Cost Index (CCI) recorded a year-over-year increase of +3.4%. This was the lowest year-over-year gain in almost four years. Furthermore, the annualized quarter-to-quarter increase was even less at +2.1%. Material costs are still increasing faster than labor. The current period of quiet for construction costs is primarily the product of two factors and by mid 2008, these are likely to be superseded by five factors, as set out in this report.
Based on job-site activity levels through October 2007, Reed Construction Data now expects total U.S. construction spending to be down -2.3% in 2007 versus +5.3% last year. Total residential investment will decline -16.7% in 2007 as housing starts will fall -23.9% this year. Non-residential building put-in-place investment is now expected to increase +16.6% in 2007 while non-building (heavy engineering) work will grow +12.1%. RCD’s outlook for 2008 total construction spending now stands at +4.2%.
Based on job-site activity levels through September 2007, Reed Construction Data now expects total U.S. construction spending to be down -2.2% in 2007 versus +5.3% last year. Total residential investment will decline -16.4% in 2007 as housing starts will fall -23.8% this year. Non-residential building put-in-place investment is now expected to increase +16.3% in 2007 while non-building (heavy engineering) work will grow +11.9%. RCD’s outlook for 2008 total construction spending now stands at +5.7%.
The pace of U.S. jobs growth slowed to +1.1% year over year in November, 2007 from +1.2% in the previous month. Employment growth has been edging down for more than a year-and-a-half, ever since the peak level of +2.1% was achieved in March 2006. Two sectors are in negative territory; two are between 0.0% and +1.1%; three are near the national average; and a further three are continuing to provide strong job growth.
For those concerned about the state of the U.S. economy, the September retail sales figures offered some reassurance. In the latest month, total U.S. retail sales increased +5.0% on a year-over-year basis. This is exactly in line with the desirable long-term growth rate. However, beyond consumer confidence, there are three other effects that will impact on retail sales in the months ahead. These relate to the lower-valued U.S. dollar, housing markets and wealth assessment.
The warehouse construction market in the U.S. is steady at a high level. New supply is keeping pace with demand for new space and, therefore, rental rates are rising at a 3.5% pace, slightly faster than overall inflation. The national vacancy rate is steady at just over the 8.5% long-term average. Warehouse construction spending, after inflation, will be steady to slightly higher in the next two years and will be concentrated in a small number of major distribution centers (i.e., serving ocean ports) and in population centers.
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RSMeans Business Solutions, a division of Reed Construction Data, recently conducted a comprehensive study to determine how quickly the industry is embracing building information modeling (BIM) and discovered that the rate of adoption has increased significantly over the last 12 months.
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