Construction Forecasts

News & Analysis

Residential Construction Recovery Delayed Further

08/24/2011 by Jim Haughey, RCD Chief Economist

Housing will feel an immediate negative impact from slower economic growth caused in part by reduced confidence. Single-family starts will be further depressed as cautious consumers defer purchases over concern about income security and heightened threats of tax increases. Some of this will spread to remolding as existing home sales growth is also trimmed. Multifamily starts will continue to rise with employment gains, which will boost occupancy rates, allowing for rent increases. However, developers will delay some starts in late 2011 and early 2012 to rebalance inventories with the now lower expectations of job growth.

The forecast is for residential construction spending to shrink 2.5% in 2011 (previously 1.5%) and then rise 7.7% in 2012 and 14.0% in 2013. Previously, spending was projected to grow about 20% in both 20123 and 2013.

U.S. Residential Building Construction
(thousands of units)

  Monthly Figures (1)
(latest actual values)
Annual Figures
  Actual Forecast
  Jun-11 Jul-11 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Northeast starts (% change is period
versus same period, previous year)
72 97 143 121 62 72 73 87 110
20.0% 27.6% -16.6% -15.3% -48.9% 15.9% 2.0% 19.2% 26.4%
Midwest 122 76 210 135 97 98 97 102 109
  43.5% -17.4% -27.6% -35.8% -28.0% 0.8% -0.9% 5.2% 6.6%
South 287 303 681 453 278 298 301 356 419
  0.3% 10.2% -25.9% -33.4% -38.6% 6.9% 1.2% 18.2% 17.7%
West 132 128 321 196 117 120 126 140 162
  22.2% 19.6% -28.5% -38.9% -40.5% 2.7% 5.1% 11.1% 15.7%
Total 613 604 1,355 906 554 587 597 685 800
  13.7% 9.8% -25.9% -33.2% -38.8% 6.0% 1.7% 14.7% 16.8%
Total Single-family 447 425 1,036 616 442 471 428 468 519
  -0.9% -0.9% -29.7% -40.5% -28.4% 6.7% -9.1% 9.2% 11.0%
Total Multi-family 166 179 306 292 112 114 169 218 281
  88.6% 47.9% -9.4% -4.5% -61.5% 1.3% 48.1% 28.9% 29.3%
New Home Sales (2) 300 298 769 481 374 321 302 347.5 439
  -2.3% 6.8% -26.7% -37.4% -22.3% -14.1% -6.1% 15.2% 26.3%
Manufactured Home Shipments 48 50 96 82 50 50 49 56 63.3
  -15.8% -10.7% -19.3% -14.3% -39.0% 0.2% -1.8% 13.4% 13.5%

(1) Monthly figures are seasonally adjusted at annual rates (SAAR figures).
(2) Based on a survey of homebuilders; excludes homes built under contract and multi-family rental units.
Forecasts and table: Reed Construction Data.


Email

RSS Feed

» return to previous page
10680

Member Comments

Post Your Own Comments 
» Not a member? Register now to become one. Otherwise, login to post your comments on this article.

click here to update your log-in and member information

click here to maintain your company profile & view metrics

Join accessArchitecture Now!
accessArchitecture members get free pre-design leads in exchange for providing project information
Keep Up To Date with eNewsletters
Keep up to date with our variety of complimentary weekly and monthly eNewsletters covering the construction industry.