The freefall in the overall economy and in construction that began last fall has now ended but both the economy and construction will decline significantly in the spring. GDP now appears likely to rise very modestly in the 2nd half of the year but construction will keep slipping although the housing market will improve slightly late this year. Rising energy prices and imminent rise in auto industry layoffs will restrain the GDP turnaround. But already, the transition to a slower GDP decline has revealed the light at the end of the tunnel causing an improvement in spending confidence which will progressively slow the recession.

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