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notes from jim haughey
april construction spending increase is misleadingApril construction spending increase is misleading
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The revised spending data show that residential remodeling spending plunged 12.2% in February, stayed at about that reduced level in March and then recovered most of the abrupt drop in April. This is implausible. But by now we are used to wild swings and frequent large revisions in the remodeling data.
There are three key insights in the April spending report. First, the housing market continues to weaken rapidly, down 6.7% more. The recent stabilization of home sales will not stop the spending slide for a few more months. Second, the manufacturing and power markets continue to expand with each now nearly as large as single family housing. This is momentum from the 2003-07 business expansion which will not last much longer. Third, commercial real estate is more distressed than reported earlier with downward revisions for both office and retail construction spending.
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