Construction unemployment tops 17%
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The construction layoffs are now mostly nonresidential. But homebuilders cut their staff by 7,400 workers in September in spite of rising starts and sales. This was probably more multi family than single family. Homebuilders will continue to reduce the number of homes under construction to bring their inventory into line with current sales. Homes are smaller and have fewer features after a long recession and will continue to be scaled back for several more months. And some homebuilders are still being forced to cut jobs to meet lenders financial requirements.
These same job cutting forces appeared a few months ago in the nonresidential building market, especially for developer financed projects, but most of the job cuts resulting from them are still ahead. Heavy contractors and their subcontractors have also begun to feel these job destroying problems but the resulting job cuts will be less because of the stimulus offset.
Construction job gains will come first in the new home market about yearend. A resumption of net hiring in the nonresidential market will be delayed until spring. Contractors need both more work and the credit access to cover pre-construction planning and a few payrolls. The Reed Construction Data forecast expects both to be in place sometime in the spring.
The current 17% unemployment rate for construction workers, together with the relative sluggish recovery expected, will keep construction wage gains under the inflation rate and will prevent labor availability problems for several years.
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