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depressed confidence restraining economic recoveryDepressed Confidence Restraining Economic Recovery
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The new labor market data is from the detailed unemployment insurance program statistics gathered from every state. This permits separating the change in jobs between hiring and layoffs/quits. Layoffs are separated between business shutdowns and business cutbacks. Hiring is separated between startups and business expansions. The new data makes it clear that the assumed hiring trends were too high. The trend that was assumed was based business hiring behavior in past recessions. We now know that business confidence and hence hiring and spending was much more depressed in this recession than in past recessions.
This is partly because the recession was set off by a credit freeze which is more obscure and harder to understand than too much inventory or rising prices, more familiar causes of a recession. But the plunge in confidence was also partly due the confusion and caution set off when the President and Congress proposed to radically restructure the economy and change the familiar rules for doing business. Caution reduces hiring and spending confidence. The energy, healthcare, financial services and FY’10 budget proposals are still pending nearly a year later. The best thing Washington could do for economic growth now is come to a conclusion and provide rules for doing business, whatever they may be.
Confidence has rebounded since the winter but remains relatively depressed. Consumer confidence, using The Conference Board index, was about 100 before the economy began to weaken, dipped briefly as low as 25 and has been stuck near 50 for since May. Business confidence has recovered more. Using the dismal.com index, over the same period it fell from 40 to -30 and has recovered to about 20 in recent months.
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