Economic Stimulus II: Do we need it?
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Recent consumer income and spending data is being misinterpreted in a period of deflation leading to the false conclusion that frightened consumers are pushing the economy into a deep recession. Real consumer income, after adjusting for declining prices, rose a huge 1.0% in November on top of a 0.7% monthly gain in October. Similarly, real consumer spending increased 0.6% in November from October, reversing the 0.5% drop in October.
This Christmas Eve good news from the Commerce Department has been largely ignored since it conflicted with nominal dollar reports of declining spending and a plentiful supply of other bad economic news about jobs, investment and trade. The outsized gains in consumer spending will cushion the recession but are not large enough to stop it from persisting at least through the first half of 2009.
The real income and spending gains are the result of falling prices, heavily from lower oil prices but also partly from more modest declines in many other goods and services. The Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator, the most accurate inflation measure used in calculating GDP, dropped 0.5% in October and 1.1% in November. That is an annual rate of deflation or about 10% in the last two months. Another gain in real spending is probable in December in spite of media reports of a disastrous Christmas sales season.
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