Existing home sales dip slightly in August
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Overall, the August existing home sales report is encouraging news. Home prices were down only slightly in August from July and above median prices reported earlier in the year. The inventory of existing homes for sales dropped nearly 11%. This much overestimates current market trends but it does confirm that the inventory overhang is shrinking. The surplus inventory and the associated discount pricing is the most serious constraint on new home sales.
Caution: inventory is always difficult to measure in any market. It is likely that the actual level of homes for sale inventory is large then reported because not all foreclosed homes are listed with Realtors. Many homes available for short sale to avoid foreclosure are also not listed. This measurement problem does not invalidate the reported declining trend in surplus inventory. But it does suggest that a return to normal inventory levels will take longer than the reported inventory and sales data suggest.<,/p>
Reed Construction Data expects existing home sales to rise 10% over the next year. The slow improvement in home prices and inventory is being supplemented by several very positive market drivers. The home affordability index, while recently slipping 20 points to 158.5 remains solidly in housing boom territory due to continuing income gains and slipping mortgage rates. Homebuyer confidence, while much depressed, is now progressively rising. And the Federal Reserve Board remains committed to providing enough capital to finance a housing market expansion at current interest rates.
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