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exodus of illegal immigrants deepens recession and slows recoveryExodus of illegal immigrants deepens recession and slows recovery
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The data on the US illegal immigrant population is obviously fuzzy but the best available data suggests that the number of illegal immigrants in the US declined by 1.5-2.5 million from the spring of 2007 through the first quarter of 2009. The base data is from the monthly Census Bureau Current Population Survey which counts the number of foreign born US residents. The best description and analysis of this data is at the Center for Immigration Studies (cis.org).
The substantial net exit of illegal immigrants is the sum of those who left
(or failed to come) for economic reasons, those who failed to come because of better border security and those here in the spring of 2007 who left when Congress failed to enact the immigrant amnesty plan. This later group is very large and makes the cyclical drop in illegal immigrant population much larger in this recession than in earlier recessions.
The estimated decline of the illegal immigrant t population is consistent with a variety of softer data. This includes emigration estimates from the Mexican government, school enrollment and housing vacancy data in border states and remittances back to Latin America and other regions. The decline is also consistent with data on border arrests, deportations and the doubling of the use of E-Verify from 2007 to 2008 to check the citizenship status of job applicants.
A further decline, albeit slower, in illegal immigrant population is likely until the US unemployment falls substantially below the current 9.4% level. This could be several years ahead. Until then the exodus of illegal immigrants will be a restraint on US economic recovery unless prospective immigrants have reason to believe that a US amnesty program is imminent and come to establish their eligibility for it. The restraint on recovery will be most pronounced in the border states and urban areas with relatively large immigrant populations.
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