This is exactly what happened six years ago. The funding renewal was delayed about a year while the growth in highway construction stalled. The delay resulted from the need for supplemental general fund money and the usual jousting among members of Congress for funding for their districts and favorite “demonstration “projects.  Finding general fund money and agreeing on geographic and project type allocations may be more difficult this time.

Transportation committee chairman Oberstar plans to ask for $450 billion, a 38% increase but the existing fuel taxes will provide only $236 billion over the six year period. The $224 billion shortfall, $37 billion/year has to compete with funding proposals for healthcare expansion, reducing carbon dioxide, subsidizing bankrupt state governments and forgiving mortgage payment.  The 38% expansion will likely be trimmed substantially.

The Reed Construction Data forecast is that the net result of the added construction stimulus funds and the bankrupt baseline highway funding system, both federal and state, is 10-12% highway construction spending growth through the end of 2010.  This suggests that as much as one-third of the stimulus plan money is consumed as a substitute to base line highway construction funding.