New home sales jump; slow pickup ahead
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Half of the June increase in new home sales was in the West, much of it prompted by temporary tax credits and discount bulk sales of multi-family homes. This is not a sustainable source of demand.
New home sales are expected to rise from a 384,000 annual pace in June to over 400,000 by yearend and then over 550,000 by the end of next year. Three serious constraints on home buying will ebb very slowly through the end of next year. The 9.4 months supply of existing homes for sales is double the normal level. When the surplus has declined in the last few months with rising sales, the actual inventory level has been rising slightly in 2009 as job losses and foreclosures dump more homes on the for sale market.
Continuing job losses for another six months also restrain improvement in buying confidence which remains at about half of normal. Record high home affordability will continue to be largely offset by depressed confidence which results from job and income cuts and the prospects of multiple new federal taxes.
Also, many homebuilders are not financially able to prepare for a pickup in home buying. They lack the credit to develop subdivisions and build model homes and start spec homes.
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