Construction Industry Forecasts

Tax receipts fell from a year earlier in 17 states.  Expect the quickest and largest cutback here. Also there is no data reported yet for three states that are likely to have experienced declining tax receipts: North Carolina, Nevada and Washington.

Decline in Tax Receipts from a Year Ago (July-September, 2008) Florida -8.2% Arizona -7.8% Tennessee -4.8% California -4.5% Idaho -4.3% Utah -3.8% Georgia -2.6% New Hampshire -2.5% Rhode Island -2.1% Pennsylvania -2.1% West Virginia -1.5% Virginia -1.2% South Carolina -1.2% New Jersey -1.2% Louisiana -1.0% Indiana -0.6% Ohio -0.6%

,p>The states with the deepest and longest housing recessions are at the top of the list.  Michigan is notably missing because of a recent large tax rate increase.

Wyoming (+18.2% -natural gas prices), Oklahoma (+8.4%), Delaware (+4.8%), Arkansas (+4.8%), New York (+4.1%) and Texas (+4.0%) are the only states with an increase in tax receipts, net if inflation, from a year ago. However, both natural gas prices and financial industry income both plunged late in the third quarter so the gains will not persist in Wyoming and New York.

ncrease in Tax Receipts from a Year Ago (July-September, 2008) Connecticut 2.4% Oregon 2.4% Alabama 2.3% Colorado 1.7% Massachusetts 1.6% Hawaii 1.5% Maine 1.3% Wisconsin 1.2% Mississippi 1.2% Nebraska 1.0% Kansas 0.8% Missouri 0.4% Kentucky 0.4%

None of the states on the list above had a large enough gain in tax receipts to offset inflation.

Vermont (+32.8% - one time audit back payment), Maryland (+9.0% - tax rate increase), Iowa (+7.7% - tax rate increase) and Michigan (+5.0% - tax rate increase) postponed inevitable tax receipt declines.