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notes from jim haughey
the three year decline in construction materials production has ended.The three year decline in construction materials production has ended.
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Steady materials production in recent months coincides with the end of the freefall in construction spending early in the spring. Materials inventory is still above the target level set by manufacturers and distributors. Hence, a further small decline in materials production is possible in the final months of the year because construction spending is projected to be at best steady and likely slightly lower.
Materials production will be progressively increasing beginning early next year. Production is expected to rise 2.5-3.0% from the end of 2009 to the end of 2010 and than increase about 6% in the following year. This is faster than the projected rise in construction sp ending in 2010 with the extra production building inventories to the desired level. Adjusted for inflation in construction costs, the 2011 gain approximately matches the pickup in construction activity.
Total manufacturing production jumped 0.6% in August on top of a 1.0% increase in July. The construction recovery is clearly lagging the manufacturing recovery. This is because housing is now such a small share of construction that the initial housing recovery is being overwhelmed by the continuing drop in nonresidential construction. Also, manufacturing is getting a significant boost from rising export sales to Asian economies that are recovering faster than the US.
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