Canada in 2007: Marginally slower but regionally balanced growth
According to the recently released Provincial Economic Accounts, growth in Canada was regionally more balanced in 2007 than it was in 2006.
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According to the recently released Provincial Economic Accounts, growth in Canada was regionally more balanced in 2007 than it was in 2006.
Statistics Canada released its latest labour force numbers today, for April 2008. Month to month, the number of jobs in the country increased by 19,000. This can be characterized as a holding pattern. It is interesting to note that whereas Canada gained 19,000 jobs in April, the U.S. lost almost exactly the same number (-20,000). Construction job growth in Canada, on a year-over-year basis, increased an incredible +10.4% in the latest month.
The attached table records the 10 largest construction project starts in Canada in April 2008, according to dollar volume. In the latest month, there were four projects in Ontario, three in Alberta, two in Québec and 1 in British Columbia. Also included is the latest trend graph on starts. This looks at 12-month moving totals (again based on dollar volume) of the two major non-residential building categories in Canada − total ICI starts and engineering work. ICI stands for industrial, commercial and institutional.
It seems that Canada is not alone in introducing taxes with the stated purpose of reducing carbon-dioxide emissions. In the United Kingdom (UK), the Chancellor (Finance Minister) Allen Darling has just introduced a “green levy” that will double the tax on motor vehicles yet reduce total vehicle emissions by less than 1%.
From January 2003 to September 2008, the Canadian dollar increased in value by slightly more than 50% versus the U.S. dollar. The inverse was that the U.S. dollar dropped in value by about one-third versus the Canadian dollar. Since September of last year, however, the two currencies have been joined at the hip. The have moved in tandem, and mainly downward, versus other major currencies around the world. As a result, a number of world currency adjustments have been quite interesting.
Statistics Canada has just released Gross Domestic Product (GDP) results on an industry basis for February 2008. On the heels of a 0.6% advance in January, month to month, Canadian GDP was -0.2% in February. There have been other recent periods of weakness – for example, December 2007 was -0.7% − but the latest number adds to growing concern that Canada is following the United States into a period of slowdown.
On a national basis, there are clear signs that office-based employment, a key driver of commercial construction, is slowing. Over the past eighteen months, its year-over-year rate of growth has dropped from a high of 4.8% to its current (March 2008) rate of 2.5%.
A cornerstone of the industrial sector in Canada (and a main driver of industrial construction) is the auto industry. Now Ford Motor Company of Canada and the Canadian Auto Workers Union have reached a tentative deal that does not go far enough in keeping the sector competitive. A colder dose of reality would have served better than an early agreement. The former Big Three remain important to the economy of Ontario and the longer-term prospects for plant survivals have taken a turn for the worse.
Statistics Canada has recently made available the results from its latest survey of major owners entitled Private and Public Investment in Canada, Intentions 2008. The results reveal much about what is going on in the country and the regional shifts that are occurring. Total current dollar construction investment in Canada in 2008 is expected to be $219 billion. This will be a 5.0% increase from the previous year. The 2007 increase versus 2006 had been a similar +6.0%, but the mix will be quite different this year.
In its April World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) again downgraded its expectations for global economic growth in 2008 and 2009.