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North America’s four major stock market indices shuffled sideways in June. The only month-end to month-end gainer versus May was NASDAQ, at +3.4%. The other three indices stayed flat. Stock markets usually try to get out front of economic activity and profit levels by six months. Indications that much of the negative news was slowing, and in some cases reversing, caused up-ticks in stock prices over the previous several months. However, this momentum has dissipated and uncertainty has set in.
Against the backdrop of a rapidly contracting economy that saw GDP drop by 5.4% quarter over quarter at annual rates, Canada’s population increased by 0.26% in Q1 2009, its strongest first quarter growth rate since 2001.
Based on the fact that Manitoba’s unemployment rate, currently 4.9%, is 40% lower than the national average (8.4%), it is clear that the province has, to date, only been sideswiped by the recession that hit the rest of country head-on.
Statistics Canada’s latest readings on capacity utilization rates in the country are dismal, to say the least. The total industry rate dropped to 69.3% in first-quarter 2009 and manufacturing languished even lower at 65.9%. Only three sub-sectors recorded utilization rates above 80%. Developments in the electric power sector have had one dramatic impact on the construction outlook and three recent news items illustrate the conflicting trends that are currently besetting the industrial sector. This story also includes CanaData’s latest square footage industrial construction forecasts.
The combination of rising inventories, a restrictive credit climate and plummeting commodity prices encouraged an unprecedented number of industrial firms to put the brakes on their production in the first quarter. This observation is based on the fact that the industrial capacity utilization rate fell by 19.3% year over year to its lowest level on record.
Since early 2009, “three-month smoothed” retail sales in Canada have become stalled at -5.0% year over year. In the United States, the comparable figure has been about -10.0% and this has applied over the last five months, from January 2009 through May. The good news is that the numbers in both countries are not getting any worse and in some important sub-categories – the auto sector and home reno markets - there are signs of gradual improvement after sharp declines in sales in the second half of 2008.
Inflation and short-term interest rates will remain subdued stretching out into the fall. But how long-lasting will this be? There are indications that some commodity prices are already starting to emerge from their hibernation. Also, long-term interest rates have almost moved up to pre-recession levels. Central bankers are emphasizing the fragility of the “green shoots” of recovery that are emerging. The emphasis on fragility is their way of trying to talk down wide-spectrum interest rates.
After having outperformed the country as a whole for more than a year, there is clear evidence that most of Vancouver Island’s key industrial drivers have been effectively knee-capped by the direct and indirect effects of the global recession.
The most recent peak for office building starts in Canada occurred two years ago, in 2007. At that time, 16.0 million square feet of work was initiated across the country. This is a category of construction that can be highly cyclical. The figure this year is expected to be only 4.4 million square feet. While this is quite a drop in activity levels, the recovery phase in this market is likely to be shorter than during previous times in history. The focus is on Calgary and Toronto.
Although the economic news on the Canadian economy is definitely more upbeat than it was three months ago, it is still mixed.
