Expect office construction to stall due to rising vacancy rates

Office vacancy rates in Canada continued to ratchet higher in the third quarter, reaching 8.2%, the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2005.

U.S. recovery plus monetary and fiscal stimulus bode well for Quebec

Heading into 2010, there are indications that the Quebec economy is starting to recover. However, given the recent weak pattern of employment growth, it is clear that the road to recovery is not without potholes.

Stock market indices give a boost to business confidence

A significant crossover point has been reached by North America’ s major stock market indices. As of October 2009’ s month-end closing, the four major indices are all higher than they were a year ago. Never mind that the base period comparison is low because stocks plummeted at the end of September last year. The year-over-year increases still give a considerable boost to business confidence. Combine it with the fact that U.S. gross domestic product change was positive (+3.5% quarter to quarter annualized) for the first time in five quarters in the July to September reporting period and the outlook for business prosperity has definitely picked up.

A strong dollar has definite benefits for Canada

In its just-released Monetary Policy Review, the Bank of Canada expressed considerable concern that “the persistent strength in the Canadian dollar is working to slow growth and to subdue inflation pressures” and “the current strength of the dollar is expected, over time, to more than fully offset the favourable developments since July.”

Stimulus, oil sands should energize engineering construction in 2010

The dichotomy between private and public sector investment in 2009 is clearly evident in the recent pattern of spending on engineering construction projects.

Commodity prices and construction costs: Adrift on a sea of conflicting influences

No doubt about it. Trying to estimate what will happen with respect to construction material costs is a tricky business. One can come at the issue from several directions. A good starting point is commodity prices. Commodities form the cornerstone for all building products.

Ontario’s economy definitely on the road to recovery

Heading into 2010, there are clear signs that the Ontario economy has turned the corner and started to expand.

This observation is reinforced by several key indicators.

China’s growth prospects appear positive, despite a weak Baltic Dry Index

Last month HSBC reported, based on the most recent China Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), that the Chinese manufacturing sector continued to expand in September.

Foreign trade shows neither U.S. nor Canadian economies anywhere close to being normal

The foreign trade positions of the U.S. and Canada offer good gauges of how the two economies are doing. Based on the latest tallies, neither economy is anywhere close to being normal.

Canadian and U.S. Consumer Price Index changes almost match again

Canada’s inflation rate, or more accurately its deflation rate, has been about the same for the past three months. In September, as just reported by Statistics Canada, the year-over-year all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) change was -0.9%. It had been -0.8% in August and -0.9% in July. Prior to that, it was only slightly negative in June at -0.3% and still positive in May at +0.1%. The Canadian (-0.9%) and U.S. (-1.3%) inflation rates are almost matching again.