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Actual year-over-year Canadian retail sales in March 2008 dropped below +5.0% for the first time since last August. However, three-month-smoothed retail sales were still above the benchmark figure at +5.9% year over year. Smoothed retail sales have been consistently at or above +5.0% since the fall of 2004. The conclusion can only be that retail sales are still performing quite well in Canada. This report also looks at retail employment by region, since construction activity often ties in with job growth.
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Market Insights,
Economy & Finance,
Alberta,
British Columbia,
Manitoba,
New Brunswick,
Newfoundland and Labrador,
Nova Scotia,
Ontario,
Prince Edward Island,
Quebec,
Saskatchewan
Over the past few months, there has been increasing evidence that Canada’s housing market is taking a breather. First, existing home sales in April were down by 12.2% year over year in April 2008. Second, while still positive, year-over-year increases in both new and existing house prices have slowed since the middle of last year. Third, the number of completed and unoccupied vacant dwellings has trended steadily higher since late in 2006.
After four straight months of decline, the year-over-year change in Canada’s all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) headed back up again in April 2008. The latest inflation rate of +1.7% was still quite restrained and well below the kind of increase that would set off any cries of alarm. Core inflation (+1.5%) was a shade lower than the all-items rate, although it also jogged up slightly versus the previous month. The Bank of Canada is likely to be quite cautious when it next sets interest rate policy on June 10th.
Despite being hobbled by a 17% year-over-year increase in the value of the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. dollar and against the headwind of slower U.S. demand for its manufactured goods, Ontario has added almost 70,000 jobs since the beginning of this year. Moreover, in April, the province’s employment rate (the % of the working age population with a job) stood at 64%, an eighteen year high.
One of the first things to notice from the two housing start charts (by provinces and cities) that accompany this report is the much greater regional diversity that is evident versus most of the last couple of years. Where the West used to dominate, the East has now stepped up. For example, Ontario (+33%) and Nova Scotia (+25%) are one-two in terms of provincial housing start gains so far this year versus last year. Traditional front-runner Alberta (-17%) is trailing the herd and is actually recording a decline.
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Market Insights,
Housing,
Alberta,
British Columbia,
Manitoba,
New Brunswick,
Newfoundland and Labrador,
Nova Scotia,
Ontario,
Prince Edward Island,
Quebec,
Saskatchewan
The three tables that accompany this report summarize labour markets in the provinces and cities across Canada. Labour markets in western Canada are still outperforming those in the East. On the other hand, there are indications that the East is responding to its job market challenges in a somewhat effective way. Six of the ten cities with the highest year-over-year increases in employment lie on the Atlantic side of the Ontario-Manitoba boundary.
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Market Insights,
Economy & Finance,
Alberta,
British Columbia,
Manitoba,
New Brunswick,
Newfoundland and Labrador,
Nova Scotia,
Ontario,
Prince Edward Island,
Quebec,
Saskatchewan
Clean drinking water is not something that can be taken for granted. Recognizing this, many local municipalities have been investing more in their water-supply systems, including water pumping stations, water filtration and water distribution systems, since 1982.
Posted in
Market Insights,
Commercial Building & Heavy Engineering,
Alberta,
British Columbia,
Manitoba,
New Brunswick,
Newfoundland and Labrador,
Nova Scotia,
Ontario,
Prince Edward Island,
Quebec,
Saskatchewan
In April 2008, a record number of Canadians were building something — houses, office buildings, roads, bridges, you name it. During the month, the construction industry accounted for 7.2% of all employed workers.
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Market Insights,
Economy & Finance,
Alberta,
British Columbia,
Manitoba,
New Brunswick,
Newfoundland and Labrador,
Nova Scotia,
Ontario,
Prince Edward Island,
Quebec,
Saskatchewan
Canada’s merchandise trade surplus improved dramatically for the third straight month in March 2008. The annualized surplus is now back up to $66.4 CAD billion. That is the highest level since May 2007, ten months ago. In December 2007, the annualized surplus had been as low as $27.5 CAD billion. The reason for the improvement has been largely due to the price increase for oil.
According to the recently released Provincial Economic Accounts, growth in Canada was regionally more balanced in 2007 than it was in 2006.
Posted in
Market Insights,
Economy & Finance,
Alberta,
British Columbia,
Manitoba,
New Brunswick,
Newfoundland and Labrador,
Nova Scotia,
Ontario,
Prince Edward Island,
Quebec,
Saskatchewan
