In terms of population growth, Western Canada definitely wins
Despite declining birthrates that have dampened its rate of natural increase, Canada’s population grew by 1.07% year over year in the first quarter of 2008.
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Despite declining birthrates that have dampened its rate of natural increase, Canada’s population grew by 1.07% year over year in the first quarter of 2008.
Frenzied commodity price increases are being fueled by strong demand for raw materials from China and other emerging nations. At this moment, most commodity prices are still marching upward. For construction, the message is not just one of cost increases. It is also one of opportunity to participate in capacity expansions. The high raw material prices are a tremendous incentive for owners to explore for new reserves, to develop and improve existing operations and to raise investment levels overall.
Based on the assumption that the law of supply and demand has not been repealed, we are going to see two things happen to the energy market generally and to oil prices in particular over the
near term.
As it heads into the second half of 2008, the British Columbia economy clearly has plenty of momentum.
Concerns about the economy are starting to creep into the retail sales numbers. The high price of gasoline is cutting into the amount of money that consumers have left over to spend on other items. Increasing anxiety about job creation, originating in the manufacturing sector, is also making everyone more conservative when it comes to carrying through on major spending commitments. Furthermore, if auto sales and housing starts are trending down, then total retail sales may well be in some jeopardy.
The monthly-average volume of housing starts (227,600 units annualized) in Canada through May 2008 is almost exactly the same as it was during the same period last year. There are many signs, however, that the pendulum is starting to swing back towards lower volumes in the period ahead. On the subject of prices, 2002 through 2007 was a sellers’ market. Therefore, home prices were bid up to excessive levels in some urban centres. A number of those prices are starting to come off their highs.
In the first quarter of 2008, strong growth of business employment relative to output pushed labour productivity down 0.8% year over year. This decline follows a marginal 0.1% increase in the fourth quarter of 2007.
The outlooks for the residential and commercial construction markets in Canada are summarized in this report from CanaData, a product line of Reed Construction Data. Residential activity levels are measured and forecast in terms of housing starts (in number of units). Commercial work is assessed according to the square footage of starts. Both categories of construction are showing signs of moderating, in line with the overall softening in the Canadian economy that is underway.
The year-over-year rate of “all-items” inflation in both Canada and the United States quickened in May 2008. In Canada, the “headline” (i.e., all-items) rate moved up to +2.2% on a year-over-year basis. In April, it had been +1.7%. In the U.S., the overall inflation rate jumped to +4.2% in the latest month, up from +3.9% the month before. This report goes on to consider the monetary and fiscal policy implications of quickening “headline” inflation, even as core inflation remains relatively restrained in both countries.
Entering the second half of this year, it is clear the Québec economy is shifting to a lower gear. This observation is based on the fact that year-to-date total employment is up by only 1,100 jobs, compared to an average increase of 24,400 during the first five months of the past five years.