Led by California and Texas, twenty states account for more than 75% of the US construction market. The projected recovery in the construction market early next year must be driven by a significant improvement in a large share of these key states. A pickup in construction activity in the thirty smaller states would not be sufficient to set off a national market recovery. The strongest regional economies and the construction markets that have held up best are in the smallest states, such as Wyoming and the Dakotas.

The twenty key states include several that have weathered the recession very well, such as Texas, Maryland and Virginia. The list also includes the fives states that have experienced the most severe recession: …