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North America’s four major stock market indices shuffled sideways in June. The only month-end to month-end gainer versus May was NASDAQ, at +3.4%. The other three indices stayed flat. Stock markets usually try to get out front of economic activity and profit levels by six months. Indications that much of the negative news was slowing, and in some cases reversing, caused up-ticks in stock prices over the previous several months. However, this momentum has dissipated and uncertainty has set in.
The U.S. economy has been shedding jobs consistently on a month-to-month basis since January 2008. From January to May of this year, job losses continued, but on a steadily declining basis. Unfortunately, the recent record of relative progress was sidetracked in June, according to the latest labor market report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In June, the employment drop was -467,000, which was significantly higher than the previous month’s -322,000 figure. This report goes on to examine (in text and graphs) employment changes in key labor market sub-sectors.
Among May’s set of housing statistics released by the U.S. Census Bureau, perhaps the most telling is that the number of new homes sold has stayed almost exactly flat since January 2009, at about 340,000 units. This is important because, with new home starts so low, the unsold inventory has continued to drop. This story also considers positive factors encouraging new home construction markets, negative factors inhibiting them and the most recent levels of starts nationally, regionally and by units.
The four graphs and single table included with this story encapsulate some of the key results from RSMeans’ Construction Cost Index (CCI) calculations for the latest quarter ending in April, 2009. The overall CCI for the United States as a whole has slipped into decline. The quarter-to-quarter change was -2.0%, which translates to -7.9% on an annualized basis. The total index decline was all due to materials, as installation rates stayed high. There is also an examination of cities based on industrial strengths.
All states remain in recession through April (latest data) and likely will through the spring although a few small plains states reported employment rises in May. The recession is deepening only in both the oil & gas districts of the gulf coast and in the financial and intellectual capital centers in the Northeast, reports Reed Construction Data chief economist Jim Haughey.
This chart shows the ranking of states by recent economic performance, including data on the last three months (annualized – March) and changes in economic activity for the latest three months (annualized) versus the previous year.
The construction equipment market through April is in the same freefall as construction spending was earlier in the year, reports Reed Construction Data chief economist Jim Haughey.
Inflation and short-term interest rates will remain subdued stretching out into the fall. But how long-lasting will this be? There are indications that some commodity prices are already starting to emerge from their hibernation. Also, long-term interest rates have almost moved up to pre-recession levels. Central bankers are emphasizing the fragility of the “green shoots” of recovery that are emerging. The emphasis on fragility is their way of trying to talk down wide-spectrum interest rates.
The accompanying table shows 20 of the largest upcoming entertainment and auditorium/stadium construction projects in the United States. They are all in the planning stage and are mainly new projects, but may also involve additions and/or alterations. Shopping centers, hotels, office buildings, medical buildings, educational buildings, libraries and museums, sports and entertainment complexes, industrial projects and government buildings will all be covered on a rotating basis.
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Arizona,
California,
Florida,
Kansas,
Massachusetts,
Michigan,
Nebraska,
New York,
Ohio,
Pennsylvania,
Wisconsin
The construction materials price index increased 0.6% in May after declining 10.0% over the previous seven months. Small monthly gains or losses are expected for a few more months before a sustained price rise begins. Asphalt (at the refinery) increased 8.6%, diesel fuel 4.4% and concrete block 3.8%. The major Price declines in May were for nonferrous pipe and tube (-5.3%), builders hardware (-3.5%), gypsum products (-2.4%) and structural steel (-1.3%), says Reed Construction Data chief economist Jim Haughey.