Here you will find US Articles relating the Market Insights Community.
Led by California and Texas, twenty states account for more than 75% of the US construction market. The projected recovery in the construction market early next year must be driven by a significant improvement in a large share of these key states. A pickup in construction activity in the thirty smaller states would not be sufficient to set off a national market recovery, says Reed Construction Data chief economist Jim Haughey.
Posted in
Market Insights,
Construction Forecasts,
Economy & Finance,
Connections,
Arizona,
California,
Colorado,
Florida,
Georgia,
Illinois,
Indiana,
Maryland,
Massachusetts,
Michigan,
Minnesota,
Nevada,
New Jersey,
New York,
North Carolina,
North Dakota,
Ohio,
Pennsylvania,
South Dakota,
Texas,
Virginia,
Washington,
Wyoming
The construction materials price index fell 0.2% in October but remains 0.5% higher than three months ago. The price trend ahead is for modest increases into the winter and then larger monthly increases for the rest of 2010. Monthly price changes into the winter will more likely be up than down but the net price rise will be small until domestic demand for construction materials is again rising steadily, says Reed Construction Data chief economist Jim Haughey.
U.S. housing starts took an unexpected bad turn in October to record an annualized rate of only 529,000 units versus their almost 600,000-unit level of the previous four months. The latest month-to-month drop was probably caused by uncertainty over the future of the first-time homebuyers’ tax credit. It was due to run out on November 30th. Builders were being cautious in anticipating that demand for new housing would be adversely affected. The Obama administration has just recently extended the program through April 2010.
There is much to be said for viewing the economy as some out-of-step version of a metronome, moving back and forth according to its own internal rhythm. It may stray a considerable distance in one direction or another, but it does always return to a “norm”. Many key financial and statistical indicators are now in the process of doing just that, moving back towards more central positions. The latest Consumer Price Index results in the U.S. and Canada are cases in point.
Reed Construction Data announced today that the year-to-date value of construction starts through October 2009, excluding residential contracts, totaled $209.7 billion, 10.1% less than in the same period in 2008. Individual month of October starts were 6.5% higher than September so the latest month total was about a 3% decline after seasonal adjustment. October 2009 starts were about 3% below last October. Starts remain well above the depressed June total but continue to slip slowly lower, says Reed Construction Data chief economist Jim Haughey.
According to a report released by Statistics Canada today, nation-wide manufacturing sales in September were -18.6% compared with the same month a year ago. However, a more recent improvement has been underway since May. On a month-to-month basis, Canadian manufacturing sales in September were +1.4% versus August. This was almost entirely due to an improvement in the motor vehicles category (+16.4% month to month). Also today, U.S. retail sales figures for October were made public. Again, it was the auto sector in the forefront. Total U.S. retail sales were +1.4% month over month and auto and parts sales were +7.4%.
The nature of economic recovery will see the U.S. goods and services trade deficit worsen in the months ahead. However, there are several factors that may limit the size of the deterioration in the deficit versus previous performance levels. First among these will be currency devaluation. In Canada, even when the trade position shifts over to a positive balance, it may have trouble returning to its former lofty heights. Such an outcome may be the fallout from natural gas prices staying depressed and the loonie continuing to climb versus the greenback.
Initial U.S. jobless claims were down again in the latest weekly report. They dropped by 12,000 and now stand at their lowest level since the first week in January of this year. Continuing claims were also lower (-139,000) and are now back to where they were in March. Some analysts have concluded that initial jobless claims at a level of 500,000, which is about their current position, combined with an unemployment rate of around 10%, point to an imminent end to job layoffs. This does not mean a quick end to problems in U.S. labor markets.p>
Houston, Dallas, Austin and San Antonio account for 36% of single family housing starts in the twenty largest metro housing markets. Phoenix, Tampa and Riverside, Orlando and Los Angeles are the only housing boom cities still left on the top twenty list. Washington has moved up to third place on the strength of tens of thousands of new federal jobs, says Reed Construction Data chief economist Jim Haughey.
This chart features U.S. Housing Permits per 1,000 population based on the latest 12 months and residential permits for cities ranked 301-361.
