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The economic environment for all nonresidential markets weakened over the past month. Business sales and growth inventory is still rising but this is due only to the recent pickup in commodity inflation. State and local government tax receipt growth increased in the first quarter but the trend is clearly reverse for the rest of the year. The only positive changes came from the financial markets in April, a month later than most of the other data.
A marginal rise in the homebuilders’ survey based index of market expectations was the only positive economic development for residential contractors in the last month. All other market drivers are weakening except for nominal consumer income which is currently misleading due to drain on income from high fuel prices.
Revisions have cancelled the earlier report of declining spending for nonresidential buildings and heavy projects. Nonetheless, spending growth has stalled in both markets. Construction spending since November is up only 1.2% for nonresidential buildings and 0.2% for heavy projects. This gain does not cover cost increases which have recently accelerated. Materials cost increased 3.6% for nonresidential buildings and 4.5% for heavy projects. The volume of work at job sites continues to decline slowly and is expected to decline further through the spring.
Homebuilders cut housing starts 12% in March, attempting to match new home supply with still falling home demand. This latest cut will achieve a match only if new home quickly pick up from the recent low level. That is unlikely. While home completions are falling quickly, existing home sales are no longer falling and the combined inventory of new and existing homes for sales is also now declining, further small reductions in new home starts are likely necessary through the spring.
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Total construction spending fell 1.1% in March after it was revised up 0.7% in February. Construction spending is now 8.4% below the peak level in February 2006 with almost half of the decline occurring since last September when residential mortgage problems began to slow growth in nonresidential construction markets.
Housing starts and sales both increased slightly in the first quarter since last December. Over the same period, inventories of homes for sale declined significantly, homebuilders slowed work on homes under construction and the decline in home prices accelerated — a necessary condition for the market to recover.
The accompanying table shows 10 of the largest upcoming jail and prison construction projects in the U.S. and 10 of the largest courthouse construction projects. They are all in the planning stage and are mainly new projects, but may also involve additions and/or alterations. Shopping centers, hotels, office buildings, medical buildings, educational buildings, libraries and museums, sports and entertainment complexes, industrial projects and government buildings will all be covered on a rotating basis.
The April 2008 statistics on U.S. inflation and retail sales have been released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau respectively. The recent increases in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) are having a clear impact on shopkeepers’ activity levels. The bottom line is that consumers currently have little enthusiasm for spending in a host of areas. Retailers, and construction activity tied to retail, are likely to find the “going” to be an uphill slog for another quarter or two at least.
The most intense housing development in the US continues to be in the rapidly growing resort and retirement centers along the Carolina coast, the hurricane rebuilding region on the Gulf Coast, the manufacturing and business centers in the North Carolina Piedmont area and Austin and Houston in Texas. As depressed as local housing markets are, relatively intense housing development still continues in the South Florida coastal cities but interior Orlando and mid-Atlantic coast Sebastian-Vero Beach are the only Florida cities among the twenty-five metro areas with the most intense housing development.
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Market Insights,
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Alabama,
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Arkansas,
California,
Colorado,
Connecticut,
Delaware,
District of Columbia,
Florida,
Georgia,
Hawaii,
Idaho,
Illinois,
Indiana,
Iowa,
Kansas,
Kentucky,
Louisiana,
Maine,
Maryland,
Massachusetts,
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Minnesota,
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This chart features U.S. Housing Permits per 1,000 population based on the latest 12 months and residential permits for cities ranked 301-360. It includes population figures for each city listed.
Posted in
Market Insights,
Housing,
Alabama,
Alaska,
Arizona,
Arkansas,
California,
Colorado,
Connecticut,
Delaware,
District of Columbia,
Florida,
Georgia,
Hawaii,
Idaho,
Illinois,
Indiana,
Iowa,
Kansas,
Kentucky,
Louisiana,
Maine,
Maryland,
Massachusetts,
Michigan,
Minnesota,
Mississippi,
Missouri,
Montana,
Nebraska,
Nevada,
New Hampshire,
New Jersey,
New Mexico,
New York,
North Carolina,
North Dakota,
Ohio,
Oklahoma,
Oregon,
Pennsylvania,
Rhode Island,
South Carolina,
South Dakota,
Tennessee,
Texas,
Utah,
Vermont,
Virginia,
Washington,
West Virginia,
Wisconsin,
Wyoming
