Overview
Recent declines in energy prices continue to produce lower prices for some building materials and slower increases for others. Among major categories seeing price declines in June besides energy products were steel mill products, extruded aluminum rod, and copper and copper products. Falling prices among materials most heavily used in nonresidential construction left a price index based on a weighted average of inputs used in nonresidential construction down for the second month in a row and virtually unchanged from June of last year.
Overall price increases for building materials used in nonresidential construction for the past year have been below general U.S. inflation. For the next several months, building materials prices are likely to rise somewhat faster and roughly match overall inflation. Better than expected construction activity would put additional upward pressure on building materials prices, pushing them up faster than general inflation.
Construction Materials Inflation
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the seasonally adjusted (SA) Producer Price Index (PPI) for materials and components used in construction was unchanged in June from May, after increasing 0.1% the previous month. The index was up 2.2% on a year-over-year basis, and 8.2% since June 2009. Meanwhile, prices for raw materials used in construction or to produce products used in construction rose 0.3% after falling 0.3% in May. The index was up 2.8% from a year earlier and 5.9% from three years earlier.
An index that measures inputs used in nonresidential construction (excluding capital equipment) fell 0.6% on a not seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis for the second month in a row. On a year-over-year basis, the index was up a slight 0.2%.
US Construction-Related Price Indexes |
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| Percent Change | ||||||||||
| Monthly from Previous Month NSA data unless otherwise indicated |
3-Month Moving Average from Previous Month NSA data unless otherwise indicated |
Year-over-year NSA data |
3 Years Ago NSA data |
|||||||
| Jun-12 | May-12 | Apr-12 | Jun-12 | May-12 | Apr-12 | Jun-12 | May-12 | Apr-12 | Jun-12 | |
| Composite Indexes (Exclude capital equipment) | ||||||||||
| Construction Materials* (Unprocessed materials) |
0.3 | -0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 5.9 |
| Materials and Components for Construction* (Processed goods) |
0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 8.2 |
| Inputs to Construction (Residential and Nonresidential) (Includes inputs to maintenance and repair) |
-0.6 | -0.5 | 0.1 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 13.5 |
| Inputs to New Construction | -0.6 | -0.5 | 0.1 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 13.2 |
| Inputs to Residential Construction | -0.4 | -0.3 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 12.4 |
| Inputs to Nonresidential Construction | -0.6 | -0.6 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 2.4 | NA |
| Inputs to Commercial Construction | -0.5 | -0.3 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 2.2 | NA |
| Inputs to Industrial Construction | -0.7 | -0.5 | 0.1 | -0.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 2.5 | NA |
| Inputs to Heavy Construction | -0.8 | -0.7 | 0.0 | -0.5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 2.4 | NA |
| Inputs to Maintenance and Repair | -0.9 | -0.8 | 0.0 | -0.6 | 0.3 | 0.8 | -1.4 | -0.7 | 1.2 | 16.9 |
| Inputs to Nonresidential Maintenance and Repair |
-1.0 | -0.8 | 0.0 | -0.6 | 0.3 | 0.8 | -1.9 | -1.2 | 0.8 | 17.7 |
| Inputs to Res Maintenance and Repair | -0.6 | -0.5 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 13.5 |
| (Indexes include installation and overhead) | ||||||||||
| New Warehouse Building Construction | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.5 |
| New School Building Construction | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 6.7 |
| New Office Construction | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 |
| New Industrial Building Construction | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 |
| Other Related Indexes | ||||||||||
| PPI Finished Goods* | 0.1 | -1.0 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 10.6 |
| PPI Finished Goods less food and energy* | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 6.1 |
| CPI Urban Consumer* | 0.0 | -0.3 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 6.4 |
| CPI Urban Consumer less food and energy* | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 4.8 |
| Production Index: Construction Supplies* | -0.3 | -1.4 | 0.7 | -0.4 | -0.6 | 0.6 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 16.0 |
| Retail Sales: Building & Equipment Supplies* | -1.6 | -2.0 | -3.2 | -2.3 | -1.2 | -0.5 | -2.6 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 1.5 |
*Seasonally-adjusted data for percent changes for monthly and 3-month moving average data | ||||||||||
Construction machinery prices increased 0.3% in June (SA) after rising the same amount in May. They were up 4.4% from a year earlier and 7.3% from June 2009. Meanwhile, construction machinery rental rates dropped 2.9% (NSA) following no change in May. On a year-over-year basis, rental rates were up 1.4% and up a modest 2.0% from three years earlier. Given that more builders are choosing to rent their equipment, we expect upward pressure on rental rents to emerge, resulting in those prices increasing faster than equipment purchase prices.
US Construction-Related Price Indexes |
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| Percent Change | ||||||||||
| Monthly from Previous Month NSA data unless otherwise indicated |
3-Month Moving Average from Previous Month NSA data unless otherwise indicated |
Year-over-year NSA data |
3 Years Ago NSA data |
|||||||
| Jun-12 | May-12 | Apr-12 | Jun-12 | May-12 | Apr-12 | Jun-12 | May-12 | Apr-12 | Jun-12 | |
| Assembled Equipment | ||||||||||
| Hand and Edge tools | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Power Hand Tools | 0.0 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 3.0 |
| Appliances* | 0.9 | 0.5 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 5.3 |
| Furnaces | 0.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 4.3 |
| Construction Machinery* | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 7.3 |
| Construction Machinery Rental (incl. oilfield equip.) | -2.9 | 0.0 | 0.9 | -0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 |
| Trucks over 14,000 Ibs. GVW | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 7.8 |
| Metal Doors, Sash and Trim | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 7.3 |
*Seasonally-adjusted data for percent changes for monthly and 3-month moving average data | ||||||||||
Cement
Cement prices reversed their May decline of 0.3%, advancing 0.5% in June, their seventh increase over the past eight months. Prices were up 2.1% from a year earlier but down 7.6% from June 2009. Cement prices are likely to continue to face upward pressure as multifamily construction and other commercial construction improve over coming months. However, the slowdown in highway construction will limit this upward price pressure.
US Construction-Related Price Indexes |
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| Percent Change | ||||||||||
| Monthly from Previous Month NSA data unless otherwise indicated |
3-Month Moving Average from Previous Month NSA data unless otherwise indicated |
Year-over-year NSA data |
3 Years Ago NSA data |
|||||||
| Jun-12 | May-12 | Apr-12 | Jun-12 | May-12 | Apr-12 | Jun-12 | May-12 | Apr-12 | Jun-12 | |
| Construction Commodities | ||||||||||
| Dimension Stone | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 4.6 |
| Cement | 0.5 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | -7.6 |
| Construction Sand, Gravel & Crushed Stone* | 0.3 | -0.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 5.2 |
| Softwood Plywood | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 24.7 | 19.8 | 8.2 | 34.1 |
| Hardwood Lumber | -0.8 | -0.5 | 0.1 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | -2.5 | -1.6 | -1.4 | 8.2 |
| Softwood Lumber* | 1.9 | 5.8 | -0.4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 3.0 | 29.5 |
| Other Commodities | ||||||||||
| Industrial Natural Gas* | 2.5 | -5.4 | -1.1 | -1.4 | -2.6 | -1.6 | -18.8 | -21.2 | -17.5 | -20.4 |
| Plastic Resins & Materials | -2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | -0.6 | 0.9 | 1.1 | -1.5 | 0.7 | 4.6 | 26.4 |
| Insulation Materials | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 14.4 |
| Iron & Steel Scrap | -12.4 | -1.0 | -2.2 | -5.2 | -0.8 | -2.4 | -18.3 | -4.8 | -5.7 | 80.1 |
| Iron Ore | 1.6 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 24.7 | 22.8 | NA | 40.5 |
| Copper Ores | -3.5 | -3.9 | -1.3 | -2.9 | -1.9 | 1.5 | -14.9 | -10.2 | -11.1 | 40.2 |
| Copper Base Scrap* | -0.6 | 1.6 | -5.4 | -1.5 | -2.7 | -2.2 | -10.6 | -4.2 | -4.6 | 55.1 |
*Seasonally-adjusted data for percent changes for monthly and 3-month moving average data | ||||||||||
Energy and Related Products
Diesel fuel prices plummeted 8.8% (SA) in June, their fourth consecutive monthly decrease, after dropping 1.4% in May. Diesel prices were down 10.7% from a year ago but still up 56.0% since June 2009.
Industrial natural gas prices ended eight consecutive months of decline and rose 2.5% (SA) after plunging 5.4% in May. On a year-over-year basis, they were down 18.8% and 20.4% lower since June 2009. Until recently, increasing supply has outstripped rising demand putting downward pressure on prices. This trend may be reversing as supply increases appear to be tapering off and may be starting a downward drift due to current low prices while demand is rising faster to take advantage of the extraordinarily low natural gas prices.
Plastic resins and materials prices sank 2.6% (NSA) in June after rising 0.6% in May and ending five consecutive monthly increases. June’s decline was sufficient to leave prices 1.5% lower than a year ago although they were up 26.4% from three years earlier.
Asphalt prices were flat in June (NSA) after jumping 2.1% in May. On a year-over-year basis, they were up 10.5%. Since June 2009, asphalt prices increased 60.6%. Asphalt roofing prices advanced 0.7% in June after increasing 1.8% in May. Recent tornado and other storm damage in parts of the country undoubtedly contributed to the recent upward pressure on prices. Nonetheless, on a year-over-year basis, prices were down 6.4% and were down 1.7% from three years earlier, largely due to weak housing demand.
Plastic construction products prices fell for the second month in a row, down 0.4%, after falling 0.7% in May. Prices were up 1.9% from a year earlier and 10.9% from June 2009. Plastics pipe prices decreased 1.3% in June after dropping 1.9% the month before. They were down 2.0% from a year earlier but 24.2% higher since June 2009. Meanwhile, plastics plumbing fixtures prices rose 0.3% after rising 0.1% in May. Prices were up 3.4% from a year ago and 4.4% from three years ago.
World oil prices appear to have hit bottom and have moved up a bit. The feed through effect of previously higher oil prices are receding and the effects of lower prices are producing declines in some energy related prices. Prices that are closely tied to oil prices, such as gasoline prices, after falling fairly rapidly are now inching up once more. U.S. oil inventories are high, which should keep a lid on oil prices in the near term, barring a major crisis such as blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.
US Construction-Related Price Indexes |
||||||||||
| Percent Change | ||||||||||
| Monthly from Previous Month NSA data unless otherwise indicated |
3-Month Moving Average from Previous Month NSA data unless otherwise indicated |
Year-over-year NSA data |
3 Years Ago NSA data |
|||||||
| Jun-12 | May-12 | Apr-12 | Jun-12 | May-12 | Apr-12 | Jun-12 | May-12 | Apr-12 | Jun-12 | |
| Manufactured Materials | ||||||||||
| Gypsum Products | 1.1 | 1.2 | -1.9 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 13.2 | 13.6 | 11.5 | 7.2 |
| Petroleum refineries | -4.5 | -4.1 | -1.2 | -3.2 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -6.7 | -5.6 | 2.3 | 59.5 |
| Diesel Fuel* | -8.8 | -1.4 | -4.2 | -4.8 | -3.9 | -2.2 | -10.7 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 56.0 |
| Asphalt | 0.0 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 10.5 | 16.3 | 41.2 | 60.6 |
| Asphalt paving mixture & block mfg. | 1.2 | -0.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 9.8 | 21.2 |
| Asphalt shingle and coating materials mfg. | 0.6 | 1.6 | -2.6 | -0.1 | 0.9 | -1.2 | -1.6 | -0.3 | 1.4 | 4.1 |
| Asphalt Roofing | 0.7 | 1.8 | -2.6 | -0.1 | 1.3 | -1.8 | -6.4 | -4.5 | -3.3 | -1.7 |
| Paint | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 11.7 | 11.8 | 11.9 | 14.8 |
| Plastic Construction Products | -0.4 | -0.7 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 10.9 |
| Plastics Pipe | -1.3 | -1.9 | 7.6 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 2.6 | -2.0 | 2.0 | 9.7 | 24.2 |
| Plumbing Fixtures | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.4 |
| Vitreous Plumbing Fixtures | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 5.6 |
| Ceramic Tile | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 0.8 |
| Flat Glass | 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | -1.3 |
| Steel Mill Products | -1.3 | -0.9 | 0.2 | -0.7 | -0.4 | 0.2 | -3.2 | -3.0 | -1.9 | 38.6 |
| Steel Pipe and Tube* | 0.1 | -2.6 | 0.9 | -0.6 | -1.6 | -0.2 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 42.1 |
| Hot rolled bars, plates & structural shapes | -1.5 | -1.6 | 0.0 | -1.0 | -0.4 | -0.2 | -3.1 | -1.5 | 0.7 | 34.4 |
| Extruded Aluminum rod, bar and other shapes | -0.6 | -1.4 | -1.8 | -1.3 | -0.6 | 0.7 | -7.2 | -7.3 | -3.1 | 18.7 |
| Architectural Metalwork | -0.7 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 5.9 |
| Metal Plumbing Fixtures* | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.7 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 5.2 |
| Builders’ Hardware | -0.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 8.7 |
| Sheet Metal Products | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -1.6 | -1.3 | -1.0 | 8.2 |
| Copper and Copper Products | -4.4 | -2.8 | -1.2 | -2.8 | -1.2 | 1.5 | -13.6 | -8.5 | -10.4 | 37.1 |
| Copper and Brass Mill Shapes | -4.1 | -1.6 | -2.7 | -2.8 | -1.1 | 1.3 | -12.6 | -8.3 | -11.4 | 25.8 |
| Nonferrous Pipe and Tube | -8.1 | -1.2 | -1.1 | -3.5 | -0.5 | 1.2 | -17.8 | -11.0 | -14.6 | 24.1 |
| Building Brick | 0.3 | -0.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -3.1 | -3.3 | -2.7 | -6.3 |
| Ready Mix Concrete* | 0.4 | -0.7 | 0.4 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 2.0 | -1.8 |
| Concrete Block & Brick | 0.5 | -0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Prestressed Concrete | -0.4 | 2.0 | -0.8 | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 | -0.8 |
| Precast Concrete Products | 0.1 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 5.5 |
| Concrete Pipe | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.8 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | -3.3 |
| Wood Kitchen Cabinets | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 4.4 |
| Millwork (window, door, cabinet)* | 0.5 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 4.3 |
| Engineered Wood Products | 0.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 10.2 |
| Laminated Plastics | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 5.8 |
*Seasonally-adjusted data for percent changes for monthly and 3-month moving average data | ||||||||||
Copper and Copper Products
Copper ores prices dropped 3.5% (NSA) in June after tumbling 3.9% in May, their fourth consecutive monthly decline. Prices were down 14.9% from a year earlier. However, reflecting the overall rise in copper prices over the past few years, they were up 40.2% from June 2009.
Copper base scrap prices fell 0.6% (SA) in June after increasing 1.6% in May. Prices were down 10.6% from June 2011 but up 55.1% from three years earlier.
Prices for copper and copper products plunged 4.4% (NSA) in June, their third consecutive monthly decrease, after dropping 2.8% in May. Prices were down 13.6% from June 2011 but up 37.1% from June 2009.
Copper and brass mill shapes prices sank 4.1% after falling 1.6% in May. On a year-over-year basis, they were down 12.6% but were up 25.8% from three years earlier. Copper pipe (nonferrous pipe and tube) prices nose-dived 8.1% after declining 1.2% in May. They were down 17.8% from a year earlier but up 24.1% from three years earlier.
Slow growth in the U.S., recession in much of Europe, and slower growth in China and India have kept downward pressure on spot copper prices. In the near term, expect somewhat lower prices for copper products.
Softwood Lumber and Gypsum
Single-family housing construction activity is the major driver of demand for softwood lumber and gypsum products, both of which have suffered since single-family housing construction peaked in 2006. There has been some slight improvement in the single-family housing market over the last few months, giving some price support for both products.
The PPI for softwood lumber rose 1.9% (SA) in June after leaping 5.8% the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, prices were up 11.0% and increased 29.5% since June 2009.
Recent increases in softwood lumber prices have been sufficient to hit trigger points allowing more imports from Canada under the Softwood Lumber Agreement (SLA). The SLA has four tiers to determine the permissible level of exports from Canada to the United States. The first, and most restrictive, tier occurs when the average price of softwood lumber is $315 per thousand board feet or lower. The second, somewhat less restrictive tier is for an average price from $316 to $335. The third, and again, less restrictive tier is for an average price from $336 to $355. The fourth tier, which removes all restrictions on Canadian softwood lumber exports to the U.S., is for an average price of $356 or higher. There has been only one month when tier 4 prevailed since the SLA has been in force.
The average price for softwood lumber to determine June’s export limit was $321, resulting in tier 2 restrictions. The average price for July was $343, resulting in tier 3 restrictions. Increased imports from Canada have resulted in lower softwood prices. Reed economics calculates the average price to determine export restrictions for August is $323, which would place tier 2 restrictions on August Canadian exports.
Late last year, six gypsum producers announced they were raising prices 35% in January of this year. The PPI for gypsum product prices increased in each of the first three months of the year, and was up 13.8% from December to March. However, the April PPI fell 1.9%. This decline has now been reversed with June’s 1.1% increase together with May’s 1.2% increase, leaving prices 14.2% higher than December prices, but well short of the advertised 35% increase. On a year-over-year basis, prices were up 13.2% in June but only up 7.2% from three years earlier. The mild improvement in the single-family housing market may be giving some support to higher gypsum prices, but we remain skeptical that the full 35% increase will prevail anytime soon.
Outlook for Construction Materials Prices
Recent economic reports indicate that the U.S. economy is on a slow, but steady growth path. Although much of Europe is in recession and those countries not in recession are either headed there or face slower growth, the rest of the world should continue to grow albeit at a slower pace.
The Reed Construction Data forecast is still for rising construction activity. This will result in modest upward pressure on construction materials prices. As the economy advances at a moderate pace, prices will move roughly in line with general inflation.
Faster than projected sustained U.S. economic growth (3% or higher at an annual rate) would accelerate commercial construction activity and push materials price inflation higher than general inflation. This seems unlikely to happen before the latter part of this year or early next year. Similarly, faster growth in the rest of the world than forecast would add to construction materials price inflation as would stimulative action by some European economies, which is not likely despite growing opposition to German imposed austerity.
Rapidly rising energy prices remain the biggest risk to materials price inflation and a major risk to the health of the world economy, though that risk has declined and the benefits of somewhat lower energy prices are moving through building materials prices and should begin to show up in increased consumer spending. However, as always, a prolonged spike in oil prices (higher than recently experienced) would hurt consumers and adversely affect the growth of the economy, possibly pushing the U.S. back into recession.
