Nonresidential construction spending increased 2% since January; the recovery was clearly underway for “for lease” private projects with spending up for five consecutive months although spending for institutional projects has fallen below the January level. The economic outlook will dampen the nonresidential recovery but will not halt it. Spending totals will stall in the second half of 2011 and then resume growing, but at a slower pace than previously expected. Commercial developers will slow construction on some projects already started and delay some projects scheduled to start because of dimmer prospects for profit when buildings are completed. Institutional project managers will be forced to slow work or delay starts in 2012 as the flow of construction funds drops in a weaker economy.
The spending decline for 2011 is projected at a slightly larger 8.3% with the expansion in 2012 now expected to be 3.3% (previously 8.9%) and the gain in 2013 now expected to be 9.5% (previously 13.3%).
U.S. Nonresidential Construction | |||||||
| Monthly Figures* (latest actual values) |
Annual Figures | ||||||
| Actual | Forecast | ||||||
| May-11 | Jun-11 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | |
| Lodging (% change is period versus same period, previous year) |
8.273 | 8.419 | 25.458 | 11.467 | 8.393 | 8.793 | 9.655 |
| -28.7% | -26.1% | -28.9% | -55.0% | -26.8% | 4.8% | 9.8% | |
| Office | 32.908 | 32.930 | 52.868 | 37.514 | 34.140 | 37.8 | 42.275 |
| -12.0% | -11.1% | -22.7% | -29.0% | -9.0% | 10.7% | 11.8% | |
| Commercial (mainly retail) | 42.673 | 43.476 | 55.421 | 40.935 | 42.005 | 44.063 | 46.850 |
| 1.5% | 5.5% | -35.9% | -26.1% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 6.3% | |
| Health Care | 38.944 | 39.879 | 45.151 | 40.081 | 39.631 | 41.688 | 46.2375 |
| -1.5% | 0.4% | -3.6% | -11.2% | -1.1% | 5.2% | 10.9% | |
| Education | 82.255 | 79.672 | 102.874 | 87.839 | 80.631 | 78.475 | 83.975 |
| -6.7% | -9.1% | -1.7% | -14.6% | -8.2% | -2.7% | 7.0% | |
| Religious | 4.196 | 3.963 | 6.227 | 5.322 | 4.137 | 3.970 | 4.259 |
| -23.4% | -27.8% | -13.9% | -14.5% | -22.3% | -4.0% | 7.3% | |
| Public Safety | 10.085 | 10.277 | 14.129 | 11.885 | 10.131 | 10.800 | 12.1375 |
| -18.3% | -16.8% | 8.0% | -15.9% | -14.8% | 6.6% | 12.4% | |
| Amusement/Recreation | 14.988 | 14.522 | 18.885 | 16.940 | 14.843 | 15.425 | 16.525 |
| -7.3% | -15.4% | -13.6% | -10.3% | -12.%4 | 3.9% | 7.1% | |
| Manufacturing | 33.291 | 34.651 | 58.702 | 38.949 | 32.878 | 34.5 | 39.725 |
| -18.4% | -11.9% | 10.6% | -33.6% | -15.6% | 4.9% | 15.1% | |
| Total | 267.613 | 267.789 | 379.715 | 290.931 | 266.789 | 275.513 | 301.639 |
| -8.8% | -8.1% | -13.2% | -23.4% | -8.3% | 3.3% | 9.5% | |
*Monthly figures are seasonally adjusted at annual rates (SAAR figures). | |||||||
