There has been so much bad news about the U.S. economy, it is time to pause and take stock − figuratively, and maybe even literally, depending on how brave you are with respect to your equity holdings.
It may actually be the case that a turning point has been reached. For sure, more bad new will be forthcoming. But this will be leavened with about an equal amount of better news.
Here’s a list of 10 areas in which the U.S. economy is either bottoming-out or has prospects for improvement.
(1) The U.S. trade deficit has stabilized at about $700 billion for more than a year. Large surpluses are being rung up in the areas of tourist visits to the U.S. and exports of grains, metals, machinery and equipment.
(2) The U.S. dollar may be stabilizing, after a long period of weakening. At least, the Chinese Yuan is appreciating versus the U.S. dollar at a faster rate than last year. This will slow some of the overheated growth in the Chinese economy that has caused disruptions in the world’s resource markets.
(3) Along with the U.S. slowdown, world commodity prices are easing. This will be particularly important in terms of the oil-gasoline “umbilical” connection. High gasoline prices have had a detrimental effect on consumer confidence.
(4) Federal tax rebate cheques will be going out to individuals shortly. These are scheduled to be mailed in May. This will be $150 billion-plus worth of consumer spending stimulus, or debt repayment.
(5) New housing starts have stabilized at about one million units. Furthermore, the number of unsold new homes has declined significantly.
(6) Existing home sales have stabilized at about five million units. The number-of- months inventory appears to be easing back from a level that peaked at about 10.5 in October of last year.
(7) Costs and prices in some areas of the economy have moderated significantly. For example, construction material costs hardly moved at all in fourth-quarter 2007 (see different report). Along with the interest rate cuts as noted in the next point, this is an incentive to proceed with non-residential construction projects, if one can only muster the confidence.
(8) Interest rates are down for qualified borrowers. In turn, mortgage refinancings have taken a turn upwards. This is all thanks to the 300 basis point (100 basis points = 1.0%) cut in the federal funds rate by the Federal Reserve Board since August 2007.
(9) There has been significant action to return stability to financial markets. There have already been huge write-offs of shaky assets by exposed banks. Some of the wobbliest institutions have been propped up in recognition of how interconnected the commercial paper market has become.
(10) A psychological hurdle has been passed in terms of federal oversight in financial matters. It is no longer a question of will the Federal Reserve take a hands-on approach. This harkens back to similar actions during the Great Depression. The Fed has crossed that bridge. It is lending money to customers beyond its traditional base and it is accepting debt as collateral that is less than top grade. This is buying the time for banks to clean up their balance sheets and regain the confidence to deal with one another.



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