Much Greater Regional Diversity
One of the first things to notice from the two housing start charts (by provinces and cities) that accompany this report is the much greater regional diversity that is evident versus most of the last couple of years. Where the West used to dominate, the East has now stepped up. For example, Ontario (+33%) and Nova Scotia (+25%) are one-two in terms of provincial housing start gains so far this year versus last year. Traditional front-runner Alberta (-17%) is trailing the herd and is actually recording a decline. The other provinces are scattered around in a way that mixes up east and west fairly randomly.

Barrie and Kelowna Lead the CMAs
Canada’s 33 largest cities are shown in the second graph. In 2006, six previously smaller urban centres across Canada were judged by Statistics Canada to warrant bumping up in status to the level of Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs). CMAs have core populations of at least 50,000 and also satisfy several other criteria with regard to number of individuals living and working in surrounding regions. Those six cities were Kelowna, Barrie, Brantford, Guelph, Moncton and Peterborough, raising the total number of the nation’s CMAs from 27 to 33.

Now, two of those new CMAs are leading the pack in terms of new housing starts, January through April of this year versus the same period last year. Barrie, Ontario (+145%) is number one and Kelowna, British Columbia (+60%) is number two.

Barrie has a number of advantages. Situated just beyond the northern fringe of Toronto, it is a great lower-cost alternative for families wanting to remain close to the amenities of big-city life. It is also the principal gateway to the huge recreation area that is northern Ontario. Likewise, Kelowna is attractive on several counts, including temperate climate and natural topography on the edge of Lake Okanagan. Its appeal as a resort and retirement community is readily apparent to anyone who has visited there.

Canada’s Latest Boom Province Well Represented
Canada’s latest boom province, Saskatchewan, is also well represented in the city graph. Saskatoon (+34%) and Regina (+20%) are both doing pretty well in terms of year-over-year housing starts. But this really understates the extent of the market demand in those two cities. Statistics Canada’s latest housing price index report shows Saskatoon leading the nation with new home prices +46.2% versus a year ago and Regina in second place at +27.8%.

The other greatest new home price index gains were recorded in Winnipeg (+15.0%), Edmonton (+13.5%), Halifax (+12.8%) and St. John’s Newfoundland (+12.0%). Newfoundland and Labrador, like Saskatchewan, is a province that is coming into its own on the wealth scale.

Alberta accounts for about two-thirds of Canada’s total oil production. Of the remaining one-third, Saskatchewan’s share (17%) is a little higher than Newfoundland and Labrador’s (14%). International oil prices have been setting new records of late. Alberta is used to such spiking, but the other two provinces are relative newcomers to this kind of prosperity. The urge has proven irresistible for consumers in those two provinces to spend money on retail goods and housing.

The Country’s Six Largest Cities
In terms of the country’s six largest cities, by population, the percentage change ranking of housing starts is as follows: (1) Toronto, +48%; (2) Ottawa-Gatineau, +41%; (3) Calgary, +39%; (4) Vancouver, +16%; (5) Montréal, +10%; and (6) Edmonton, -41%.

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