A small rise in MF starts was the only good news in the housing market over the last month. This is a volatile series. The April gain may only be a brief offset to the unusually large March decline. It is more significant that SF sales continued to decline. All other key market measures were either steady at a depressed level of worsened further. Nonetheless there was progress towards a market recovery. The price decline accelerated producing a minimal drop in home sales as buyers began to purchase foreclosed and stressed homes at bargain prices.
Housing Market Monitor — June 2008
| Consumer buying power | Latest Month | Previous Month/Qtr. | Year Ago | 12 Month Average | ||
| Affordability – 30-Y Mortgage | NAR Index | Mar | 134.8 | 131.0 | 114.0 | 117.4 |
| Affordability – 1-Y ARM Mortgage | NAR Index | Mar | 142.3 | 134.1 | 115.6 | 120.9 |
| Consumer income growth (3 mo. annualized % change) |
US Commerce Dept. | Apr | 4.6 | 4.7 | 8.9 | 4.9 |
| Consumer real income growth (3 mo. annualized % change) |
US Commerce Dept. | Apr | 2.2 | 1.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 |
| Employment (000's jobs per month) | US Labor Dept. | April | -20 | -81 | 46 | 39 |
| 30-Y fixed mortgage rate (Freddie Mac) |
Freddie Mac | May | 6.03 | 5.92 | 6.26 | 6.22 |
| 1-Y ARM (Freddie Mac) | Freddie Mac | May | 5.24 | 5.19 | 5.52 | 5.43 |
| Consumer Confidence Index | Conference Board | May | 57.2 | 62.8 | 108.5 | 87.1 |
| Household net worth growth (annual % change) |
Federal Reserve Board | 4th Q | 3.40 | 7.40 | 6.10 | 6.30 |
| New home construction | ||||||
| Permits (000's, annualized) | US Census Bureau | Apr | 978 | 932 | 1,489 | 1199 |
| Sales (000's, annualized) | US Census Bureau | Apr | 526 | 509 | 907 | 659 |
| Starts (000's, annualized) | US Census Bureau | Apr | 1,032 | 954 | 1,487 | 1200 |
| Homes under construction (000's, annualized) |
US Census Bureau | Apr | 997 | 1,004 | 1,184 | 1083 |
| Homes completed (000's, annualized) | US Census Bureau | Apr | 1,000 | 1,190 | 1,535 | 1361 |
| New home inventory | US Census Bureau | Apr | 456,000 | 467,000 | 549,000 | 506,583 |
| Total new home inventory (month supply) |
US Census Bureau | Apr | 10.6 | 11.1 | 7.4 | 9.3 |
| Home sale price (median) | US Census Bureau | Apr | $246,100 | $225,600 | $242,500 | $238,483 |
| Residential materials cost | US Labor Dept. | Apr | 7.2 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 2.9 |
| Residential contractor hourly wage | US Labor Dept. | Apr | 0.0 | 1.6 | 4.6 | 3.5 |
| Housing market index | NAHB | May | 19 | 20 | 30 | 21 |
| Existing home competition | ||||||
| Pending home sales index (2001 = 100) |
NAHB | Mar | 83 | 83.8 | 104.8 | 90.1 |
| Home inventory (months supply) | NAR | Apr | 11.2 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 9.7 |
| Homes sold (000's annualized) | NAR | Apr | 4,890 | 4,940 | 5,930 | 5,319 |
| Median existing home sales price | NAR | Apr | $202,300 | $205,300 | $219,900 | 213,892 |
| Median home price index (ann. % change, purchase only) |
OFHEO | 4th Q | -5.2 | -1.4 | 3.6 | -0.3 |
| Median home sales price index (20 large cities only) |
MacroMarkets | Mar | 171.93 | 175.8 | 201.02 | 190.55 |
| Remodeling | ||||||
| Remodeling contractor hours worked (not sea. adj.) | US Labor Dept. | Mar | 43,946 | 42,400 | 45,192 | 44,194 |
| Mortgage refinancing applications index |
MBA | Apr | 2445.7 | 2756.4 | 2065 | 3261.4 |
| NAHB remodeling index | NAHB | 1st Q | 41.8 | 40.9 | 46.2 | 43.4 |
| Leading Index of Remodeling Activity (ann. % change) | Harvard Joint Center | 1st Q | -1.7 | -1.5 | -0.6 | -2.9 |
Abbreviations: NAR = National Association of Realtors; NAHB = National Association of Home Builders;
OFHEO = Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.
Table: Reed Construction Data and Reed Construction Data - CanaData.
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