As the Wild Rose province heads into the second half of the year, employment is growing by 3% year over year, unemployment sits at 3.3% and an unprecedented 72.1% of its working age population (15 years of age and older) has a job.

Clearly, the Alberta economy is still operating in high gear. Over the past 12 months, particularly healthy increases in job growth have occurred in wholesale and retail trade (+36,600), financial services (+20,800), professional and technical services (+16,500), agriculture (+16,000) and construction (+14,100).

Increases in these industries have offset declines in education services employment (-13,100), in manufacturing employment (-10,900) and information services (-9,400).

Despite this picture of current economic health, there are signs that the province is losing momentum. Over the past year, employment growth has slowed from a high of +6.7% year over year in January 2007 to its current rate of +3.0%.

This slowing in job growth has been accompanied by a drop in net migration, which in turn has contributed to a softening in housing demand. Existing home sales have fallen by 28.4% year to date, while the number of new listings has increased by 32.9% and year-to-date housing starts are down by 16.7%.

Looking forward, although Alberta has lost some of its momentum, three factors should continue to provide it with ample support over the next two years:

(1) Record-high oil prices and higher natural gas prices should sustain energy exploration and resource development into 2010;

(2) Healthy growth of office-based employment, combined with very low commercial vacancy rates, will support the growth of commercial construction over the next several quarters; and

(3) The province continues to be in excellent fiscal health.

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