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home news index current headwinds will slow, but not stop, austin's economy

Current headwinds will slow, but not stop, Austin's economy

July 07, 2008 - John Clinkard

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Although Austin's economy has lost some of the momentum it had in mid 2007, the most recent Conference Board Help-Wanted OnLine Data Series suggests that the metro area's appetite for labor is still quite strong.

Over the past year, according to the Conference Board, the total number of online job ads is down by 5.1%, compared to a 13.2% drop for the country as a whole. In fact, the city also has the highest number of online ads at 5.77 per 100 people. Meanwhile, Austin's 3.3% unemployment rate is the fourth-lowest of the 50 largest metro areas in the U.S.

From an industrial perspective, seven of Austin's nine major industrial sectors exhibited solid year-over-year job growth in May: professional services (+3.9%); construction (+3.7%); leisure and hospitality services (+3.3%); education and health services (+3.0%); and financial services (+2.9%).

Two industrial sectors showed weaker year-over-year growth in May: manufacturing (-4.2%) and information services (-1.8%).

In a recent Forbes article, Austin was described as "recession proof." This assertion is based in part on three factors: (1) a recent pattern of strong, balanced employment growth; (2) median house prices that were up by 4.7% in the first quarter; and (3) a moderate level of sub-prime mortgage exposure.

According to Manpower Inc, Austin's near-term hiring outlook has deteriorated compared to last year. However, job prospects appear relatively good in non-durable goods manufacturing and education sevices.

Over the past year, the population of Austin has grown at a very healthy 3%, compared to 0.8% for the country as a whole.

Despite this strong population growth, a large supply of new apartments coming onto the market in the near term will probably dampen rental construction into 2009.

Given that Austin also has a large volume of office space currently under construction, the outlook for commercial construction is also guarded.

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