The Heyday is over for Construction Employment
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Construction Jobs Growth in Canada at +7.7% is Unsustainable
Construction employment (+7.7%) in Canada has had its heyday and is set for declines ahead on a year-over-year basis. Slowing growth in the economy will cut into residential construction to a considerable degree and non-residential to a lesser degree. Residential work (both new and renovation) accounts for about forty percent of all construction.
Manufacturing Employment Growth (-1.7%) Showing Remarkable Tenacity
While manufacturing employment is negative on a year-over-year basis, it is still showing remarkable tenacity, given all the talk about the negative impact of the loonie's rise in value. In fact, in the latest month (June 2008), manufacturing employment in Canada (-1.7%) outperformed manufacturing employment in the United States (-2.5%).
Job losses in Canada's manufacturing sector have been limited to specific sectors so far −wood products, mainly due to the U.S. housing collapse, and automotive and parts manufacturing, due to the fall-off in demand from the U.S. and the high cost of gasoline.
There has been a side-effect of currency change that has helped the manufacturing sector. The U.S. dollar has continued to come under selling pressure versus the Euro, partly due to higher interest rates overseas. Therefore, while the loonie has stayed at parity with the greenback, it has experienced some weakness versus the Euro. This has helped to gain more export sales to European customers.
Looking forward, manufacturing employment is probably headed for more trouble. This will come about as a result of residential construction declines. Sales of many manufactured products depend either on housing construction activity itself or on what homeowners want to place in those new residences.



