Unit Starts in September (217,600 units) at Same Level as in August
The annualized rate of total housing starts in the nation stayed strong in September 2008, according to figures just released by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The level of starts in the latest month was almost exactly the same as in the prior month (August), at 217,600 units. CanaData’s projections of a full-year starts figure of 212,500 units in 2008 and falling to 190,000 in 2010 still seem reasonable. In 2007, total housing starts in Canada reached 228,300 units.

Housing starts continue to owe much of their buoyancy to the multiple-unit market (i.e., condos) in Toronto. By way of contrast, multi-unit starts in three of Canada’s six largest cities, according to population, fell dramatically in September of this year versus September of last year − Edmonton (-85%), Calgary (-62%) and Montréal (-59%). In Vancouver (-6%) and Ottawa (+11%), they were about on a par with last year, while in Toronto (+60%) they continued to shoot skyward.  

On a year-to-date basis, multi-unit starts in Toronto are +68% while singles are -17%. For the nation as a whole, multiples are +15% and singles are -19%. However, the big question is: Where do we go from here? The monthly figures from October going forward may well tell a different story, since a lot has changed over the past couple of weeks. The initial failure of the U.S. financial bailout package and coincident collapse of stock market prices on Black Monday has had a dramatic impact on expectations about job prospects, incomes, credit availability, home prices and overall confidence.

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