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home news index expect slower hiring to dampen migration in 2009

Expect slower hiring to dampen migration in 2009

October 15, 2008 - John Clinkard

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Driven by a near-record increase in net international migration, Canada's population increased by 125,800 persons to reach 33,311,400 in the second quarter of this year.

This figure represents the largest quarterly increase in more than 17 years. According to Statistics Canada, almost 73% of this increase was due to strong growth of net migration.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) — the other source of population growth — added 34,241 individuals to the population, a number little changed from second-quarter 2007.

Over 40% of the 69,200 international migrants to Canada in the second quarter were non-permanent or temporary residents, a fact that suggests that firms unable to find labour locally are increasingly sourcing workers from abroad.

Alberta was the fastest-growing province in the second quarter. Its population increased by 0.8%, almost twice the 0.5% rate of increase in the first quarter.

Surprisingly, the second-fastest-growing province in the second quarter was Prince Edward Island. Its population grew by 0.6% , the fastest quarterly increase for the province in more than 25 years.

In terms of population growth, British Columbia was in third place in the second quarter, due to the combination of strong international (+15,178) migration and solid interprovincial (+1,669) migration.

Despite a small loss of interprovincial migrants, Manitoba's population was up by a very respectable 0.4% in the second quarter, as a result of a very healthy (14,182) increase in international migrants.

In the second quarter, Ontario also experienced a significant outflow (-3,642) of interprovincial migrants. Nevertheless, due to a large inflow of international migrants, the province's population increased by a very-respectable 0.4%.

Looking forward, it appears likely that the effects of the recent period of financial market volatility and the tightening of global credit conditions will push firms to reduce their offshore and out-of province hiring during the first half of 2009. This slower pace of hiring should dampen both international and interprovincial migration through 2009 and into 2010.

Canada

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