The two accompanying charts record what is happening with respect to employment in the design services in Canada. The first chart shows the numbers on employment, as derived from the labour force survey (LFS) of Statistics Canada. The second takes the absolute numbers in the first chart and records them as year-over-year percent changes.

The figures from the LFS at this level of industry disaggregation are not seasonally adjusted. For the purposes of the charts, they have been smoothed as three-month moving averages, placed in the latest month. This helps to identify trends more easily. Self-employment in design services is quite high, approximately 30% of the total, according to Statcan. Finally, interior design services make up about 10% of the total design category.

An Advance Indicator of Future Construction Levels
Employment in architectural and engineering offices is an advance indicator of future activity levels for mainly non-residential construction, both buildings and civil work. Two periods of extreme weakness are highlighted in the second (i.e., percent-change) graph by means of circles. Those periods roughly corresponded with weakness in the overall economy, at the start of the 1990s and again early in the 2000s. The Canadian economy is entering similar times once again.

Year-over-year employment in design services in Canada was strong from late 2005 through early 2008. That's a period of two-and-a-half years and compares well, for duration, with other periods dating back to the late 1980s. However, it is also apparent that caution has entered the picture with respect to recent hiring practices. While there has been an uptick late in 2008, the trend through most of this year has been a downward shift in year-over-year hiring.

Have you heard the News?
The design professions have heard the news. A slowdown is underway in the world economy. Financing for projects is harder to come by and private borrowing costs have been elevated by the credit crunch. Projects are being delayed, postponed and cancelled.

Relief may be on the way, however. Governments are going to be pressing ahead with infrastructure projects. To the extent that this is weighted towards civil projects, this will mark a shift away from architectural services and towards engineering expertise. As some consolation for the architectural community, public spending on medical and education facilities may also receive the benefit of increasing government largesse.