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home news index recession arrives in nonresidential markets

Recession Arrives in Nonresidential Markets

February 13, 2009 - Jim Haughey

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Nonresidential jobsite spending declined 0.6% in December after rising steadily for more than three years. The value of nonresidential building project starts fell 25% in January from December after adjusting for the usual seasonal changes. Similarly, civil starts dropped 16%. Nonresidential building and civil contractors laid off 50,000 workers in January.

The $130-140 billion in extra nonresidential construction funds in the economic stimulus legislation will cushion the spending decline within a few months but will be spent too slowly to stop the decline from persisting through most of the year.

Key Indicators of the U.S. Market Environment — February 2009
Commercial and Industrial Construction (Driven mainly by cyclical factors)

  Year Ago Previous
Month or Qtr.
Latest Level Recent Trend Impact on Const.
Commercial
Dow Jones composite REIT, index
(Dow Jones)
199 114 W/E Feb 11th  101 Low Falling
10-Year T-bill rate, % level (FRB) 3.74 2.48 W/E Feb 6th  2.92 Low Falling
Office rent, 54 metro areas,
% change y/y (PPR)
6.5 -2.1 Q4 -3.8 Low Falling
Office vacancy rate, 54 metro areas,
% level (PPR)
15.2 16.8 Q4 17.5 High Rising
Office employment, % change y/y (P&PR) 0.3 -1.3 Q4 -2.4 High Falling
Office construction starts ($s), 3-mon. ave. y/y % change (RCD) -23 -26 Jan -13 Low Falling

Hotel room rate, 54 metro areas,
% change y/y (PPR)
3.9 2.3 Q4 1.5 High Falling
Hotel occupancy rate, 54 metro areas,
% level (PPR)
66.7 64.0 Q4 62.2 Average Falling
Airline revenue passenger miles,
% change y/y (RCD)
1.6 -6.5 Jan -7.2 Average Falling
Real price of gasoline (Nov 08 = 1.00), $s/gal. (U.S. Energy Dept.) 3.03 2.13 Dec 1.68 High Falling
Hotel construction starts ($s),
3-mon. ave. y/y (RCD)
-11 -2 Jan -17 High Falling

Retail rent, 54 metro areas,
% change y/y (PPR)
-22.3 -2.7 Q4 -7.4 Average Falling
Retail vacancy rate, 54 metro areas,
% level (PPR)
11.3 14.7 Q4 18.1 Average Rising
Retail sales, % change y/y
(U.S. Census Bureau)
3.9 -9.7 Jan -9.3 Low Falling
Consumer confidence index
(The Conference Board)
87.3 38.6 Jan 37.7 Low Steady
Consumer real income growth, % change y/y (U.S. Commerce Dept.) 0.6 -2.3 Dec 3.3 High Rising
Retail construction starts ($s),
3-mon. ave. y/y (RCD)
0.2 -32.7 Jan -34.7 Low Falling
Industrial
Warehouse rent, 54 metro areas,
% change y/y (PPR)
1.5 -2.4 Q4 -3.4 Low Falling
Warehouse vacancy rate, 54 metro areas,
% level (PPR)
8.6 8.8 Q4 9.1 Average Falling
Business inventory, % change y/y
(U.S. Census Bureau)
2.9 4.1 Dec 0.9 High Falling
Business sales, % change y/y
(U.S. Census Bureau)
-9.5 -6.2 Dec -11.8 Low Falling
Warehouse construction starts ($s),
3-mon. ave. y/y (RCD)
-7.3 -31.4 Jan 4.9 Low Falling
Capacity utilization rate, % level (FRB) 79.2 71.8 Dec 70.8 Low Falling
Manufacturing production index (FRB) 115.1 106.1 Dec 103.6 Low Falling
Goods Exports $ billions
(U.S. Commerce Dept.)
101.8 97 Dec 88.7 Low Falling

Abbreviations: y/y = year over year; WE = week ending; FRB = Federal Reserve Board;
PPR = Property & Portfolio Research; RCD = Reed Construction Data.
Table: Reed Construction Data and Reed Construction Data - CanaData.

Key Indicators of the U.S. Market Environment — February 2009
Institutional and Engineering Construction
(Driven by demographics and government finances, as well as cyclical factors)

  Year Ago Previous
Month or Qtr.
Latest Level Recent Trend Impact on Const.
Institutional
State & local govt. capital spending,
$ billions (U.S. Commerce Dept.)
349 362 Q4 368 High Rising
State & local government tax receipts,
$ billions (U.S. Commerce Dept.)
1414 1330 Q4 1308 High Falling
State budget reserves, % of Exp.
(National Governors assn.)
10.5 n/a FY 08 8.0 High Falling
Stock market index (Dow Jones Industrial) 12,743 8,281 Feb 9th 7,939 Low Falling
K-12 enrollment, millions of people
(U.S. Education Dept.)
55.762 n/a 2007-08 55.966 Average Steady
Higher-education enrollment, millions of people (U.S. Education Dept.) 17.598 na/ 2007-08 18.264 High Rising
Hospital receipts, $ billions (U.S. Health & Human Services Dept.) 648.2 2007 696.7 High Rising
Prison population, % change y/y
(Pew Charitable Trust)
4.3 N/A 2007-08 2.5 High Falling
Heavy/Engineering
Federal highway trust fund, $ billions
(U.S. Treasury Dept.)
11,247 10,366 Jan 9,886 Low Falling
Electric power capacity utilization rate,
% level (FRB)
85.5 84.3 Dec 84 High Falling
Airline revenue passenger miles, billions (RCD) (ann. % change) 1.6 -6.5 Jan -7.2 Average Falling
State & local govt. capital spending,
$ billions (U.S. Commerce Dept.)
349 362 Q4 368 High Rising
State and local government tax receipts,
$ billions (U.S. Commerce Dept.)
1414 1330 Q4 1308 High Falling
Heavy contractor employment, 000s
(U.S. Labor Dept.)
1002 935 Jan 932 High Falling
Construction equipment shipments,
% change y/y (U.S. Census Bureau)
-16.7 7.1 Dec -4.1 Average Falling

Abbreviations: y/y = year over year; WE = week ending;
FRB = Federal Reserve Board; RCD = Reed Construction Data.
Table: Reed Construction Data and Reed Construction Data - CanaData.

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