Recession Arrives in Nonresidential Markets
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Nonresidential jobsite spending declined 0.6% in December after rising steadily for more than three years. The value of nonresidential building project starts fell 25% in January from December after adjusting for the usual seasonal changes. Similarly, civil starts dropped 16%. Nonresidential building and civil contractors laid off 50,000 workers in January.
The $130-140 billion in extra nonresidential construction funds in the economic stimulus legislation will cushion the spending decline within a few months but will be spent too slowly to stop the decline from persisting through most of the year.
Key Indicators of the U.S. Market Environment — February 2009
Commercial and Industrial Construction (Driven mainly by cyclical factors)
| Year Ago | Previous Month or Qtr. |
Latest | Level | Recent Trend | Impact on Const. | ||
| Commercial | |||||||
| Dow Jones composite REIT, index (Dow Jones) |
199 | 114 | W/E Feb 11th | 101 | Low | Falling | ![]() |
| 10-Year T-bill rate, % level (FRB) | 3.74 | 2.48 | W/E Feb 6th | 2.92 | Low | Falling | ![]() |
| Office rent, 54 metro areas, % change y/y (PPR) |
6.5 | -2.1 | Q4 | -3.8 | Low | Falling | ![]() |
| Office vacancy rate, 54 metro areas, % level (PPR) |
15.2 | 16.8 | Q4 | 17.5 | High | Rising | ![]() |
| Office employment, % change y/y (P&PR) | 0.3 | -1.3 | Q4 | -2.4 | High | Falling | ![]() |
| Office construction starts ($s), 3-mon. ave. y/y % change (RCD) | -23 | -26 | Jan | -13 | Low | Falling | ![]() |
| Hotel room rate, 54 metro areas, % change y/y (PPR) |
3.9 | 2.3 | Q4 | 1.5 | High | Falling | ![]() |
| Hotel occupancy rate, 54 metro areas, % level (PPR) |
66.7 | 64.0 | Q4 | 62.2 | Average | Falling | ![]() |
| Airline revenue passenger miles, % change y/y (RCD) |
1.6 | -6.5 | Jan | -7.2 | Average | Falling | ![]() |
| Real price of gasoline (Nov 08 = 1.00), $s/gal. (U.S. Energy Dept.) | 3.03 | 2.13 | Dec | 1.68 | High | Falling | ![]() |
| Hotel construction starts ($s), 3-mon. ave. y/y (RCD) |
-11 | -2 | Jan | -17 | High | Falling | ![]() |
| Retail rent, 54 metro areas, % change y/y (PPR) |
-22.3 | -2.7 | Q4 | -7.4 | Average | Falling | ![]() |
| Retail vacancy rate, 54 metro areas, % level (PPR) |
11.3 | 14.7 | Q4 | 18.1 | Average | Rising | ![]() |
| Retail sales, % change y/y (U.S. Census Bureau) |
3.9 | -9.7 | Jan | -9.3 | Low | Falling | ![]() |
| Consumer confidence index (The Conference Board) |
87.3 | 38.6 | Jan | 37.7 | Low | Steady | ![]() |
| Consumer real income growth, % change y/y (U.S. Commerce Dept.) | 0.6 | -2.3 | Dec | 3.3 | High | Rising | ![]() |
| Retail construction starts ($s), 3-mon. ave. y/y (RCD) |
0.2 | -32.7 | Jan | -34.7 | Low | Falling | ![]() |
| Industrial | |||||||
| Warehouse rent, 54 metro areas, % change y/y (PPR) |
1.5 | -2.4 | Q4 | -3.4 | Low | Falling | ![]() |
| Warehouse vacancy rate, 54 metro areas, % level (PPR) |
8.6 | 8.8 | Q4 | 9.1 | Average | Falling | ![]() |
| Business inventory, % change y/y (U.S. Census Bureau) |
2.9 | 4.1 | Dec | 0.9 | High | Falling | ![]() |
| Business sales, % change y/y (U.S. Census Bureau) |
-9.5 | -6.2 | Dec | -11.8 | Low | Falling | ![]() |
| Warehouse construction starts ($s), 3-mon. ave. y/y (RCD) |
-7.3 | -31.4 | Jan | 4.9 | Low | Falling | ![]() |
| Capacity utilization rate, % level (FRB) | 79.2 | 71.8 | Dec | 70.8 | Low | Falling | ![]() |
| Manufacturing production index (FRB) | 115.1 | 106.1 | Dec | 103.6 | Low | Falling | ![]() |
| Goods Exports $ billions (U.S. Commerce Dept.) |
101.8 | 97 | Dec | 88.7 | Low | Falling | ![]() |
Abbreviations: y/y = year over year; WE = week ending; FRB = Federal Reserve Board;
PPR = Property & Portfolio Research; RCD = Reed Construction Data.
Table: Reed Construction Data and Reed Construction Data - CanaData.
Key Indicators of the U.S. Market Environment — February 2009
Institutional and Engineering Construction
(Driven by demographics and government finances, as well as cyclical factors)
| Year Ago | Previous Month or Qtr. |
Latest | Level | Recent Trend | Impact on Const. | ||
| Institutional | |||||||
| State & local govt. capital spending, $ billions (U.S. Commerce Dept.) |
349 | 362 | Q4 | 368 | High | Rising | ![]() |
| State & local government tax receipts, $ billions (U.S. Commerce Dept.) |
1414 | 1330 | Q4 | 1308 | High | Falling | ![]() |
| State budget reserves, % of Exp. (National Governors assn.) |
10.5 | n/a | FY 08 | 8.0 | High | Falling | ![]() |
| Stock market index (Dow Jones Industrial) | 12,743 | 8,281 | Feb 9th | 7,939 | Low | Falling | ![]() |
| K-12 enrollment, millions of people (U.S. Education Dept.) |
55.762 | n/a | 2007-08 | 55.966 | Average | Steady | ![]() |
| Higher-education enrollment, millions of people (U.S. Education Dept.) | 17.598 | na/ | 2007-08 | 18.264 | High | Rising | ![]() |
| Hospital receipts, $ billions (U.S. Health & Human Services Dept.) | 648.2 | 2007 | 696.7 | High | Rising | ![]() |
|
| Prison population, % change y/y (Pew Charitable Trust) |
4.3 | N/A | 2007-08 | 2.5 | High | Falling | ![]() |
| Heavy/Engineering | |||||||
| Federal highway trust fund, $ billions (U.S. Treasury Dept.) |
11,247 | 10,366 | Jan | 9,886 | Low | Falling | ![]() |
| Electric power capacity utilization rate, % level (FRB) |
85.5 | 84.3 | Dec | 84 | High | Falling | ![]() |
| Airline revenue passenger miles, billions (RCD) (ann. % change) | 1.6 | -6.5 | Jan | -7.2 | Average | Falling | ![]() |
| State & local govt. capital spending, $ billions (U.S. Commerce Dept.) |
349 | 362 | Q4 | 368 | High | Rising | ![]() |
| State and local government tax receipts, $ billions (U.S. Commerce Dept.) |
1414 | 1330 | Q4 | 1308 | High | Falling | ![]() |
| Heavy contractor employment, 000s (U.S. Labor Dept.) |
1002 | 935 | Jan | 932 | High | Falling | ![]() |
| Construction equipment shipments, % change y/y (U.S. Census Bureau) |
-16.7 | 7.1 | Dec | -4.1 | Average | Falling | ![]() |
Abbreviations: y/y = year over year; WE = week ending;
FRB = Federal Reserve Board; RCD = Reed Construction Data.
Table: Reed Construction Data and Reed Construction Data - CanaData.





