All states are now in recession. The most severe recessions are in the states dominated by the weakest industries early in 2009: durable goods manufacturing, forest products coal, leisure travel and financial securities. The least severe recessions are in states dominated by oil & gas or farming. The recession remains above average severity in the states formerly dominated by new home construction. Three oil states — Alaska, Louisiana and Texas — have very mild recessions. Two durable goods manufacturing and forest products states plus Michigan have extremely severe recessions.

The state economic growth indexes are calculated by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank from state employment and income data and are benchmarked to approximately track national GDP growth.

The index dropped more than one percentage point (12% annual rate of change) from February no March in 12 states led by Oregon (-3.7) and Washington (-2.1), both beset with plunging timber, technology and Asian trade markets as well as West Virginia. Coal prices are down 2/3’s since last fall and coal sales have slipped nearly 5%.

March or possibly April will be the worst month of decline during the recession. Early reports suggest that Asian trade and possibly electronics sales improved in April which will slow the economic collapse in the Pacific Northwest. But turnabout in coal prices and volumes is likely to boost income in the coal states for many months.

The nearly complete restructuring shutdown of Chrysler and the substantial shutdown of GM in May and June, together with further wage cuts and layoffs, will aggravate the already severe recession in Michigan, Ohio and Indiana and in the states with parts plants stretching south into Mississippi. This negative impact will persist into the summer.

Income in the huge California economy is holding up better than in most states. The 7.9% decline in economic growth in California in the last three months is less than Illinois (-8.2%), Florida (-8.1%), Georgia (-8.1%) or North Carolina (-12.0%). Nonetheless, public construction is at risk from California’s huge budgeted spending cutbacks from many years of overspending.

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Ranking States by Recent Economic Performance – March 2009