The four largest cities in Texas account for more than one-third of the total single family permits in the last 12 months in the twenty largest housing markets in the US. Los Angeles, San Francisco, Denver, Miami and Minneapolis dropped off the list months ago. Like many border states, Texas attracts lots of immigrants but it also is attracting domestic migrants from other states seeking jobs in new businesses or lower living and housing costs. Together, Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio attracted 210,000 (net) domestic and foreign immigrants in the year ended July 2008. This was 24% of the total domestic and foreign immigration in the entire country.

Houston and Dallas trail only New York City on the list of top multi-family markets. Multi-family permits have nearly doubled since 2005 in contrast to 50-70% declines in 2005’s hottest condo and apartment markets. New York City is still the top market even without the extra 15000-16,000 June 2008 permits to beat an adverse rule change. NYC permits will be declining with the deeper cutbacks expected soon in the city’s financial markets. Permits are up from a year ago in many college and oil patch towns that escaped both the 2005-06 housing boom and the worst of the ongoing economic recession.

No large metro areas have expanding housing market any longer, measured by the change in permits from a year ago. The only significant pickup in housing permits from the late 2005/early 2006 peak of the housing boom is in Beaumont/Port Arthur Texas. This city sat out the 2004-06 housing boom fueled by subsidized or fraudulent mortgages but is now being boosted by migration into Texas, the strong energy industry and post-hurricane rebuilding.

Atlanta leads the list of cities with the largest drop in housing permits from the peak in the housing boom three years ago. Excessive inventory is a bigger problem than declining home prices. Excepting the Texas cities, the other hard hit markets have experienced price declines that are causing a postponement in home purchases. Southwest Florida, California and Las Vegas/Phoenix will be the last markets to recover because the collapse of the local housing markets has led to significant local economic recessions.

The smallest declines in permits since the peak of the housing boom are mostly in cities that missed out on much or all of then boom b e cause of stable housing prices or a low incidence of subprime mortgages. Among larger cities, this includes New Orleans (-19%), Buffalo (-325), Boston (51%), Columbus (-53%) and Pittsburg (-56%).

For more information, please see US Metro Housing Markets – May 2009 – Cities 1-100.