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home news index china’s economic green shoots are starting to bloom

China’s economic green shoots are starting to bloom

July 22, 2009 - John Clinkard

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It appears China’s economy is picking up speed.

This observation is based on a number of sources both inside and outside the Middle Kingdom.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, gross domestic product increased by 7.9% in the second quarter of 2009, up from 6.1% in the first quarter.

This growth was driven by significant increases in industrial production, which increased by 9.1% year over year in the second quarter, up from 5.1% in the first.

In the second quarter of this year, agricultural output of summer grain increased by 2.2% year over year while pork production was up by 8.1%.

For the first half of the year, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) rose by 57.4%, due in part to increased spending on rail transportation (+126.5%) and on road construction (+54.7%).

Looking ahead, a number of key Chinese economic indicators are flashing green.

The CLSA China Manufacturing PMI increased from 51.2 to 51.8 in June, its third consecutive rise.

In June, new orders in manufacturing rose, as did export orders, order backlogs and employment.

Having said this, much of the strength in the manufacturing PMI was due to increases in domestic orders. Foreign orders only exhibited a small increase in June, the first in 11 months.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the National Business Climate (NBC) Index “boomed” in the second quarter, rising by 10.3 points versus the first quarter.

In the latest quarter, activity increased significantly in the construction industry and in real estate, as well as in manufacturing, retail trade and accommodation and catering services.

The positive outlook for growth in China indicated by the broad-based increase in the NBC index and by the CLSA China Manufacturing PMI was reinforced by the recent pattern of growth in the Baltic Dry Index, which reflects China’s appetite for raw materials. After hitting a low of 872 in January 2009, it has trended higher in fits and starts to its current level of 3542, as of July 17th.

Canada

Baltic Dry Index of Bulk Dry Cargo Prices
Data source: Bloomberg.
Chart: Reed Construction Data - CanaData.
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