Statistics Canada’s July 2009 employment numbers were a disappointment. Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of Canada, has been leading people to believe that the recession is over. His words need clarification. Certain aspects of the recession are moderating. Home resales have rallied from low levels at the end of last year and early this year. Greater stability has returned to the auto sector with GM and Chrysler coming out of bankruptcy protection. World demand for some Canadian commodities is seeing an upturn. However, labour markets will still suffer for some time, since re-hiring is what companies do only when their sales have a more established record of recovery.

Canada versus U.S.

Canada has lost over 400,000 jobs since last October, which was the start of the downturn in this country. The major declines in employment have come in manufacturing and construction. But compare some of the key numbers in this nation with what has transpired south of the border. Canada’s year-over-year employment is -1.8%. In the U.S., it is -4.2%. In the services sector, Canada has performed quite well (+0.3%), without moving into negative territory on a consistent basis. The U.S. is -2.6% in services jobs. Both countries are doing poorly in manufacturing, with Canada at -10.1% and the U.S. at -12.2%, although the rates of decline have now halted. Year-over-year construction employment in Canada is -8.4%, while it is -14.6% below the border.

Regionally, it is important to look at the month-to-month changes in employment to spot trends. On this basis, there is some interesting and encouraging news. Alberta and British Columbia were two provinces with significant deteriorations in their labour markets at the beginning of this year. In July, Alberta experienced a relatively modest employment decline of only -0.2% versus May. B.C.’s figure was -0.3%, the same as for total Canada.

Regional Job Markets

In July, two provinces recorded month-to-month increases in the number of jobs, Ontario (+0.2%) and Manitoba (+0.3%). Manitoba’s unemployment rate (5.2%) is the second lowest in the country. Saskatchewan continues to have the lowest unemployment rate among provinces, thanks to a +2.8% year-over-year job gain. The latest data shows, however, that the hot labour market in Saskatchewan is beginning to “come off the boil.”

Student Workers are Out of Luck

If you have a teenager hanging around the house this summer, you are not alone. The figures on summer employment for students are bleak. Employment of 15- to 24-year- olds is -10.9% versus July of last year and the unemployment rate for this age group has moved above 20.0%, its highest figure on record since the reporting of such data began in 1977.