The employment outlook is improving – led by construction
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While there are plenty of signs that the combination of record low interest rates and a large increase in government spending is helping to boost demand for big ticket items such as houses and cars, there have only recently been some signs of a rebound in job creation. This has given rise to fears of a “jobless” recovery. Two recent reports suggest that this situation is changing.
First, the latest employment report by Statistics Canada indicated that total employment increased by 24,000 in April, its strongest one-month increase since July of 2008. It is worth noting that in August all of the new jobs added were part time, and most importantly, they were all in the private sector. This indicates that firms are finding it necessary to add staff to meet increased demand for their products or services, but for the time being, they can’t quite justify adding a full-time position.
Another indicator of strengthening labour demand is the latest Q4/2009 Manpower Inc. Employment Outlook Survey which indicates that net hiring plans in Canada have turned positive for the first time since Q1/2009. Moreover, this increase in hiring plans was not confined to one region. In Q4, all four major regions reported stronger net hiring plans, led by the Prairies (including BC) which was up by +8% and followed by the Atlantic (+7%), Québec (+3%) and Ontario (+2%).
Across the ten major industrial categories reported by Manpower and consistent with the recent August employment statistics, the two industries with the strongest net hiring plans in the fourth quarter are construction (+10) and finance, insurance and real estate (+10). Close behind are mining (+9) and public administration (+9).
Reflecting the persisting challenges in durable goods manufacturing, hiring plans in the sector remained in negative territory (-1) where they have been since Q1/2009.
Looking ahead, the fact that both these employment indicators are flashing green as the economy is just starting to expand bodes well for job growth later in the year and into 2010.


