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home news index exceptional news on the jobs front for canada in september

Exceptional news on the jobs front for Canada in September

October 09, 2009 - Alex Carrick

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It’s been a bit of a shock to see the glowing employment numbers released by Statistics Canada today. The increase in number of jobs in the country at +31,000 is considerably above most analysts’ estimates. In fact, it is higher than the long-term monthly rate of job creation in Canada going back nearly 20 years. Furthermore, there was a 92,000-job-gain in full-time employment, which was partly offset by a 61,000 decline in part-time employment. But full-time jobs are generally valued more highly, since they are higher-paying and more stable in most instances.

The other surprise was the Canadian unemployment rate which fell significantly for the first time in about a year to 8.4%. That leaves it well below the U.S. jobless rate of 9.8%. Two categories of employment which have really taken the heat lately – manufacturing and construction – did much better in the latest reading on jobs. In September, manufacturing had a 26,000-job increase in employment and construction recorded an almost-the-same gain of 25,000 jobs.

Manufacturing has benefitted from the pick-up in auto sector demand in Canada and even more so south of the border. Construction employment has come back a little as single-family housing starts have perked up in the latest month or two. The Bank of Canada has warned, however, that the ongoing and increasing strength in value of the Canadian dollar versus the greenback poses a threat to how much recovery can be expected from producers selling into the U.S. market.

The year-over-year percentage changes in employment do not tell quite as bullish a story as the raw numbers do. The total number of jobs in Canada dipped slightly to -2.1% in September on a percentage comparison basis with the same month of last year. In August, the comparable figure had been -1.7%. In a similar fashion, the total number of service sector jobs fell back to 0.0% on a year-over-year basis in the latest month after climbing to +0.5% in the previous month.

Canada : month-to-month total job creation
Canada
Over the past 20 years, the Canadian economy has generated, on average, 17,000 new jobs per month or 200,000 new jobs per year.
Data Source: Household Survey, Statistics Canada/Chart: Reed Construction Data - CanaData.
Canada vs U.S. monthly unemployment rate (percent)
(seasonally adjusted data)
Canada
Data source: Statistics Canada and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Department of Labor).
Chart: Reed Construction Data - CanaData.
Change in total employment – Canada vs U.S.
Canada
*Year over Year" is the monthly figure versus the same month of the previous year.
Data sources (seasonally adjusted): Statistics Canada and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Department of Labor).
Chart: Reed Construction Data - CanaData.
Change in service sector employment – Canada vs U.S.
Canada
*Year over Year" is the monthly figure versus the same month of the previous year.
Data sources (seasonally adjusted): Statistics Canada and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Department of Labor).
Chart: Reed Construction Data - CanaData.
Change in construction employment – Canada vs U.S.
Canada
*Year over Year" is the monthly figure versus the same month of the previous year.
Data sources (seasonally adjusted): Statistics Canada and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Department of Labor).
Chart: Reed Construction Data - CanaData.
Change in manufacturing employment – Canada vs U.S.
Canada
*Year over Year" is the monthly figure versus the same month of the previous year.
Data sources (seasonally adjusted): Statistics Canada and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Department of Labor).
Chart: Reed Construction Data - CanaData.
Change in full-time vs part-time employment in Canada
Canada
*Year over Year" is the monthly figure versus the same month of the previous year.
Data sources (seasonally adjusted): Statistics Canada.
Chart: Reed Construction Data - CanaData.
Change in private sector vs public sector employment in Canada
Canada
*Year over Year" is the monthly figure versus the same month of the previous year.
Data sources (seasonally adjusted): Statistics Canada.
Chart: Reed Construction Data - CanaData.
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» View all comments (1 total comments)
10/12/2009 - posted by Mina M

The Labour Force Survey also collects labour market information about the territories. These data are not included in the national estimates, but are published separately and in the form of three-month moving averages. Information in this release is based on data that are not seasonally adjusted and therefore comparisons should only be made on a year-over-year basis. Compared with the third quarter of 2008, employment was down in the Northwest Territories in the third quarter of 2009 (-2,200), pushing the unemployment rate up 2.6 percentage points to 7.6%. Over the same period, the employment rate (the proportion of the working-age population who are employed) fell by 7.0 percentage points to 65.1%, the lowest since the start of the series in 2001.Employment in the Yukon edged down in the third quarter of 2009, bringing the employment rate to 70.2%, a decline of 3.3 percentage points from the same quarter of the previous year. The unemployment rate was 5.6%, the lowest of the three territories. In Nunavut, over the same period, employment declines brought the employment rate down 1.3 percentage points to 53.1%. In the third quarter of 2009, the unemployment rate stood at 14.4%. I just hope that with this numbers, people will lessen using the emergency loans.

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