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home news index strong population growth should help underpin housing demand into 2010

Strong population growth should help underpin housing demand into 2010

October 06, 2009 - John Clinkard

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Canada’s population grew by a surprisingly strong 0.36% in the second quarter of 2009. This was slightly less than the 0.38% recorded in Q2/2008, which was a 17-year high.

According to Statistics Canada, 70% of the second quarter population increase was due to net international migration, while natural increase (births minus deaths) accounted for the remaining 30%.

In the second quarter, Canada recorded 96,200 births, up 1,600 from Q2/2008 and the highest second quarter since 1996. Probably the most noteworthy aspect of the second quarter population stats is the relative strength of net international migration despite the hostile global economic climate.

Moreover, while Ontario’s share of international migrants fell to a near record low of 43.2%, this decline was offset by a larger number of international migrants moving to Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia.

Across the country, the four western provinces continued to exhibit the strongest growth of population: Alberta (+0.60%), Manitoba (+0.48%), Saskatchewan (+0.44%) and British Columbia (+0.39%).

In Ontario, the population grew by 0.34% in Q2. This was its smallest increase since the second quarter of 1993, caused in large part by a net outflow of migrants to Alberta (3,600), Newfoundland (900), British Columbia (700) and Saskatchewan (600).

Although the quarterly change in Quebec’s population (+0.34%) was below the national average (0.36%), it was the strongest second quarter increase for the province since 1991.

In British Columbia, the population increased by 0.39% in Q2, somewhat slower than the 0.49% increase it recorded in Q2/08. The prime cause of B.C.’s slower pace of growth in Q2/09 was a significant slowdown in interprovincial migration to its lowest level since 2003.

This solid growth in both international and interprovincial migration should have a positive impact on housing demand during the remainder of 2009 and into 2010, particularly in the western provinces.

Population growth: Canada and provinces
Canada
Data source: Statistics Canada/Chart: Reed Construction Data – CanaData.

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