The US economy lost 6,929,000 jobs from December 2007 to August 2009. Monthly job losses have slowed to about 200,000/month but losses will continue into the winter with up to 500,000 more jobs lost. The unemployment rate will rise from 9.7% in August 2009 to slightly over 10% in summer 2010. Monthly job gains will reach about 150,000 by the end of 2010 and accelerate to well over 200,000 by the end of 2011. This painfully slow job recovery will keep the unemployment rate still near 9% by the end of 2011.

Hence, the buyer’s market for labor will continue into 2012. Wage gains will recover from the current 2.0-2.5% annual rate to 3-4% by the end of 2011, well short of the 5-6% pace at the peak of the last business expansion. The construction unemployment rate will remain in the double-digit range for several more years with only sporadic shortages of skilled workers on nonresidential projects.

Net hiring will be underway by next winter in most sectors of the economy but small net job losses will extend through 2010 for industries typically late in a business cycle, including consumer services and state and local governments.