The Minneapolis-St. Paul economy is definitely still underwater, with employment having fallen by 2.7% (-47,000) over the past year and an unemployment rate of 7.3% in December. Given that employment for the country as a whole is down  by  3.1% over the same period, however, and that the national unemployment rate is 10%, the Twin Cities economy has not suffered as much as many major metro areas. 

During the final quarter of 2009, there was evidence of a gradual pickup in overall activity, reflected by increased job growth in education and health services, government services and transportation and trade. 

Although goods producing industries, including manufacturing and construction, are still shrinking – according to the Ninth District Manufacturing Business Conditions Survey – they are doing so at a more moderate rate than they were six to nine months earlier. 

This recent pickup in the metro area’s pace of economic activity was acknowledged by the Minneapolis Fed in a recent fedgazette, which observed that “the national and the (Minneapolis Fed) district economies appear to have emerged from recession, and a slow recovery is underway.” 

Looking ahead, the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey reported a “strong job market expected for Minneapolis-St. Paul –Bloomington” in the second quarter of 2009.  It noted that hiring levels in the area appeared to be “much stronger compared to the last quarter.”  

According to the survey, hiring intentions appear to be significantly stronger in construction, non-durable goods manufacturing, information services and financial activities.

This view of stronger job growth ahead is reinforced by the most recent Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Data Series.

It reported that the number of new help-wanted ads in Minneapolis-St. Paul was up by 35.8% year over year in February, while the total number of help-wanted ads was 37.1% higher than a year earlier.

Together, these surveys strongly suggest that the economic climate in the Twin Cities will be improving as summer approaches.