U.S. economy becalmed in summer doze
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The most recent data releases south of the border provide further evidence that the U.S. economy has gone into a summer doze.
Consumer confidence, as reported by the Conference Board, has dipped again. The index level in July dropped to 50.4 from 54.3 in June. In May, the index stood at 63.3, the highest it had been since March 2008.
The Conference Board’s series is based on a survey of 5,000 households.
The low point for the consumer confidence index occurred in February 2009, at 25.3. In the early part of last year, the credit crunch and threat to the financial system in its entirety was most severe in the recession.
Since May 2009, the confidence index has been mostly fluctuating between 50.0 and 60.0. The slow progress in restoring employment levels has been one of the chief contributing factors to the lack of upward progress.
On that count, the latest initial jobless claims figure from the Department of Labor (Employment and Training Administration) provides only scant encouragement.
For the reporting week ended July 24, the number of first-time unemployment insurance seekers declined by 11,000 from the prior week, but this still left the level at a relatively lofty 457,000.
While this is below the 500,000 benchmark level above which there are more firings than new hires, it is also well short of the 400,000 figure that would indicate a much stronger shift to taking back workers.
Initial jobless claims did drop to only 427,000 in early July, but they have shot back up again since then.
The U.S. remains 7.5 million jobs short of its peak employment level before the recession.
For your average American to have greater confidence, there needs to be more assurance about employment stability and career opportunities. The spillover impacts would also be important in other key sectors, such as residential real estate markets.
The present circumstances, in which many of the indicators are nearly motionless, are hopefully just an indication of an economy on summer holidays along with quite a few of the rest of us.
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